Welcome to Week 8

I recently had some feedback from several home league players that they had earlier waiver runs and would love that information a bit sooner. I am trying my best to accomplish this and decided to split the newsletter this week into 2 parts. This is part 1 for home leagues only, part 2 will be the high stakes, and full team reviews, so keep on the lookout!

Week 8 Priority Home League Targets

I wanted to include some players for all you home league heros out there! These are some of my favorite players that should be available in most home leagues based on inclusion criteria of being rostered in <50% of ESPN leagues. I will list out the players in my ranked order instead of breaking into tiers for how I prioritize them. If you are in need of a spot start at certain position then feel free to prioritize those players. You may also move QBs and TEs up in priority if you play in a Superflex or TEP league. I will offer FAAB suggestion ranges for each player followed by a list of droppable players. Please note you do not have to drop these players and all suggestions are general as it is impossible to cover all nuances of individual leagues. Feel free to reach out to me on twitter @stephmiller57 or find me in the Deposit Kingdom Discord with any questions, good luck everyone!

Josh Downs (34.5% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 15-30%) is a legitimate rookie star and has been on an upward trajectory with Gardner Minshew at QB. Downs is still only playing in 3 WR set, but the Colts are running 11 personnel on at least 75% of the time. In week 7 Downs had the highest target share among wide receivers with an elite 29% and 24% TPPR. Downs is a priority rookie waiver buy.

Darrell Henderson (12.1% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 15-30%) broke Zach Evans managers’ hearts after a midnight Schefter bomb announced Henderson and Royce Freeman would be the primary RBs in week 7. Henderson started the game and the two alternated drives, but Henderson played more snaps 58% to 42%, led in rush share 60% to 40%, routes 41% to 25% and had had 8% target share and 100% of the 2 min offense. Henderson is the back I want to prioritize while Kyren Williams is out and could play well enough to earn a role when he returns.

Kareem Hunt (46.3% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 15-30%) is a priority add after Jerome Ford suffered an ankle injury in the Week 7 game and is believed to miss the next 1-2 weeks with “low grade high ankle sprain.” Pierre Strong took over the lead rushing role after Ford’s injury, however Hunt was questionable all week leading up to the game, so injury could be a factor here. Hunt maintained his role which we have seen grow over last couple weeks, where he had season high in snaps and routes participation the week prior. Hunt was already a viable add with this role before the Ford injury, and there is immense upside here if Hunt takes over more of the Ford role in the next couple games, making him one of my favorite waiver options for the week.

Emari Demercado (15.7% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 10-20%) is another waiver darling messing with fantasy managers’ minds. Demercado was a priority waiver add after having a clear role, and then put up a dud in week 6 where he played the most snaps, but was not used on early downs and we saw Ingram work as the primary rusher with Damien Williams mixing in. Many managers gave up too quickly (me included) only to see Demercado take over Ingram’s work (who only played on special teams) and maintained his original pass role in week 7. Conner remains on IR for at least 2 more weeks, making Demercado an appealing waiver add… again (if we can trust Cardinals).

Chuba Hubbard (46% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 10-20%) remains a priority pickup where available coming off their week 7 bye. Hubbard had the best rushing performance for the panthers this season in week 6 with 19 carries for 88 yds and 1TD, while Miles Sanders missed the game with a shoulder injury. We will need to see if Sanders returns this week, but Hubbard could hold onto the starting role even when Sanders returns.

D’Onte Foreman (48.7% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 10-20%) shared work with Darrynton Evans the past two weeks while Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson missed with injury. Herbert will miss two more weeks on IR, but Johnson could be back this week. Foreman played well in week 7 averaging 5.6 YPA and scored on all 3 of his green zone touches and should earn a sizable role even when Johnson returns.

Rashee Rice (48.6% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 8-15%) had his best game of the season with 5-60-1 stat line and 65% of snaps. Justin Watson was out this game and Kadarius Toney was dealing with a toe injury, and saw a big drop in playing time, all helped Rice see an increase in play time opportunity. Rice may never be a full time player, but at least the Chiefs are getting him the ball while out there, as he had 15% target share, the most among wide receivers, and now there are reports that Justyn Ross has been arrested…

Kendrick Bourne (24.1% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 8-15%) is a viable option at the wide receiver position as he has seen his role on the Patriot offense continue to grow, especially while Juju Smith-Schuster has missed time with a concussion. Bourne is operating as the WR1 in the Patriot offense, overtaking DeVante Parker in routes the past 2 weeks and leads the team in target share, averaging a solid 22% of teams targets on this season. While the Patriots might not be the most exciting offense, Bourne is a solid starting option.

Dalton Kincaid (31.3% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 8-15%) had his best game of the season in week 7 scoring 16 PPR points but still is only runny 64% of routes with a very low aDOT. However, Kincaid could finally see an opportunity to expand his role with reports Dawson Knox will have wrist surgery. The outlook is Knox won’t miss much time and could even be back after only 1 game, but without other receivers (outside of Stefon Diggs) stepping up Kincaid could have big opportunities ahead.

Kyler Murray (22.6% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 8-15%) is practicing (in case you have not heard) and will be a full go in practice this week. The Cardinals continue to be cautious and it sounds like he is most likely not to start this week, with a better chance in week 9 or 10. Kyler Murray is the type of player you want to maximize your upside as you finish strong and head into the fantasy playoffs. Murray has never finished with less than 18.6 PPR points per game on average in a season and has more upside than any other QB you will find at this point on waivers. Sure, there is some risk coming off an ACL injury and there are questions with a new coaching staff, however, the potential upside is that Kyler Murray finishes as a top 5 QB (if he can get back most of his rushing)… high risk, high reward here.

Devin Singletary (25.8% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 8-15%) was another top waiver target who had a week 7 bye, but should be added after taking over the Houston backfield in week 6 playing 52% of snaps and 8% of targets, while Dameon Pierce played 35% of snaps and was not targeted. Singletary was also the RB the team relied on in the 4th quarter to seal the win. Pierce has been inefficient this season averaging 2.6 YPC, opening the door for Singletary who has 4.8 YPC to get more opportunities.

Royce Freeman (20.3% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 3-8%) is worth a pickup as Kyren Williams is on IR and it is possible he still has value splitting work with Darrell Henderson. I would grab him if Henderson is unavailable in your league and because we have seen changes in how these backfields operate from week to week.

Jayden Reed (17.8% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 3-8%) could see an increase in opportunities with an injury to Christian Watson that we still lack clarity on the severity and if he will miss time. We saw Reed have an uptick in opportunities earlier in the season when Watson missed time so he is worth an add if you need WR depth but not a huge priority based on how Jordan Love and the Green Bay offense is struggling right now.

Tyjae Spears (33.8% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 1-5%) like everyone else was on bye in week 7 and remains a great RB stash with immense contingent upside. In week 6 Spears led the Titans in receiving…all on one 48yd pass. It is possible the Titans trade or shut Derick Henry down and try to get the rookie some more opportunities to see what they have, also the Titans are sure to be playing most games from behind.

Trey McBride (1.2% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 1-5%) is a priority pickup at the TE position, after Zach Ertz has been put on IR. McBride had already been a stash seeing a rise in routes and targets the past two weeks, and is made even more interesting by Kyler Murray’s return which should be an improvement to the passing offense.

Michael Mayer (9.5% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 1-5%) is continuing to see a steady snap rate, but did see his route participation and target share drop in week 7. If we look a bit closer you see the Raiders took out several starters in the 4th quarter of this blowout game script and Mayer was also used frequently as a blocker in this one. The most important factor is Mayer continues to play comfortably ahead of Austin Hooper, but it is hard to feel comfortable starting him until we see an increase in those routes.

Gardner Minshew (3.6% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 1-5%) is a good add if you need a QB fill-in and in SF leagues. Minshew finished as the QB3 last week in PPR scoring despite a difficult matchup against the Browns, passing for 305 yds 2 passing TDs and 2 rushing TDs and 29 rush yards.

Derek Carr (18.4% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 1-5%) is a great streaming option with a favorable schedule of several dome games on the horizon. Is Carr a great QB… no, but he throws a lot (255) attempts, 6th most and he throws it far with a 9.2 aDOT, ranking 4th with Justin Herbert.

Taysom Hill (5.6% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 1-3%) offensive weapon extraordinaire has seen some work over the last couple of weeks with a 13.1% target share and 16.1% rush share. Juwan Johnson could return this week, but I would still hold to see what Hill’s usage looks like since the Saints deploy him in multiple roles, assuming your league identifies Hill with a TE designation.

Marvin Mims (8.2% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 1-3%) if you have followed any of my content this off season you know I love me some Marvin Mims. The negative points in the box score is not a shining endorsement for a waiver wire stash, however Mims did see a season high 45% of routes and Jerry Jeudy could still get traded by Halloween.

Drops

DeShaun Watson, Damien Harris, Antonio Gibson, Zach Evans, Juju Smith-Schuster, Tyquan Thorton, Darnell Mooney, Zach Ertz, Justyn Ross, Skyy Moore, Irv Smith, Allen Lazard, Craig Reynolds, Alec Pierce, Paris Campbell, Anthony Richardson, Greg Dulcich

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