First a look at week 4

There are two main reasons I decided to write this newsletter; the first being to collect my thoughts as I manage all these teams and the second as a way to hold myself accountable while remaining open and honest in how these decisions impact team performance. This type of transparency, especially in the public eye in the age of twitter, can be challenging as I open myself up to the potential for a lot criticism and harsh feedback (even though I am often my own worst critic). A quick glance at the twitter feed often reveals someone mad and lashing out at a fantasy content creator for giving bad advice or being high on a failing player. People tend to focus more on all the times that you are wrong and less on the times you get things right.

Looking back on week 4 I have to be honest, it was a rough one overall, and I took some big hits. The important thing is to analyze the data, and reassess with the new information provided and adjust accordingly. The hardest thing is sifting through the data and small sample size of the season thus far; knowing what is predictive and indicative to what is most likely to happen moving forward and thus guide upcoming decisions and which variables are mostly noise that should be tuned out and ignored.

Starting in week 5 we now have not only injuries to account for in our waiver decisions, but players on bye weeks as well. Teams that are not active on the waiver wire and that fail to implement a strategic approach can quickly become decimated… this is a chance to stay one step ahead of of our competition!

Week 4 Waiver Wins

When I say “wins” it is in reference to player(s) won on the waiver wire, not a performance evaluation. Because I am releasing this article after the conclusion of week 4 many things in hindsight may not be a win after all. I include this section not for bragging rights or victory laps, but rather to keep myself accountable and demonstrate that I am in fact bidding on many of the players I am writing about (for better and worse).

Josh Palmer (no shares were won, but included to show what the most popular waiver add of week cost)

Prices range won in other leagues $321-$586

CJ Stroud

Winning Bid $38, other leagues went in range $59-$213

Wan’Dale Robinson (4 shares)

Winning Bid $1, $1, $23, $28 other leagues went in range $7-$83

Nelson Agholor (4 shares)

Winning Bids $1, $1, $1, $1, other leagues went in range $1-$37

Trayveon Williams (2 shares)

Winning Bids $1, $1, other leagues went in range $1-$38

Melvin Gordon (4 shares)

Winning Bids $1, $1, $1, $1 other leagues went in range $2-$58

Isaiah Spiller

Winning Bid $1

Keaton Mitchell (2 shares)

Winning Bids $1, $1, other leagues went in range $3-$90

Trey Sermon

Winning Bid $1, other leagues went in range $2-$49

DJ Chark

Winning Bid $1, other leagues went in range $87-$159

Dalton Schultz (2 shares)

Winning Bids $1, $3

Logan Thomas (2 shares)

Winning Bid $1, $1, other league went $25

Donald Parham

Winning Bid $1, other leagues went in range $1-$110

Boston Scott

Winning Bid $1

CIN Team Defense (2 shares)

Winning Bids $1, $1, other leagues went in range $7-$39

IND Team Defense

Winning Bid $1, other leagues went in range $7-$24

Week 4 Standings

Here is a look at how the Ship Chasing and my other teams are performing so far, as you can see some are much better than others. There is still a lot of football, and many of the teams are built to become stronger as the season comes on (ie zero RB and rookies).

NFFC Prime Time

Buckeye Boomers (2-2) 4th Place 573.95 pts

This team suffered a loss this week mostly because there were no standout performances. Players like Keenan Allen, Davante Adams, and Sam Laporta were huge disappointments after expectations were high because of massive performances the week prior, while George Pickens was a complete bust in this one.

Ship Taeking (1-3) 9th Place 491.80 pts

Somehow this team lost again this week even after starting rookie sensation Devon Achane. It seems our entire wide receiver group of Tee Higgins, George Pickens, and Jakobi Meyers busted hard, while Kyle Pitts continues to break our hearts.

Ship Chasing (2-2) 5th Place 569.70 pts

This loss is a bit of a bad beat here, putting up the 3rd highest score in the league, but matched up against a team that put up a massive outlier top performance. Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews power duo couldn’t do enough to overcome the Tee Higgins injury and floor performance from Tyreek Hill this week. I have very little doubt this team will bounce back next week.

Waiver Chasing (2-2) 10th Place 487.60 pts

My primetime team lost this week and I am not even mad about it. We were matched up against the number 2 team in the prime time contest overall which has a starting roster that should be illegal. We had better than expected performances from the Jets giving some level of optimism for the future and saw Garrett Wilson put up a solid score. Hollywood Brown also pleasantly surprised this week after being on the injury report, however, Deebo Samuel who was also injured all week was a big disappointment.

FFPC Main Event

Chasin’ Go Bills (3-1) 1st Place 650.65 pts

The best performing team had its first loss of the season and now is sitting at 66th place overall. Miami led to disappointment this week for the team with a floor performance from Raheem Mostert and uninspiring return for Jaylen Waddle. Couple that with the painful loss of Luke Musgrave to a concussion and it was too much to overcome going up against a Lamar/Andrews team that put up big numbers in the TEP scoring.

SC (mini episodes) (3-1) 3rd Place 594.70 pts

This was another first place undefeated team experiencing its first loss of the season. Coincidentally, this team also started Raheem Mostert and Luke Musgrave and went up against Lamar Jackson.

Stat Chasing (2-2) 7th Place 513.80 pts

There is no way to sugar coat this one, the beloved boys of Stat Chasing had their asses handed to them by Davis Mattek, Liam Murphy, and Kyle Dvorchak. It is hard to win on a week where every player bottomed out and zero RB was taken a bit too literal. The only player worth a damn was the Dallas kicker, but he was eviscerated by the Dallas defense rostered by those Dirty Bois who luck boxed their way into a victory.

April/ Cranking Purple (3-1) 4th Place 538.13 pts

Finally a victory! CrakRok smoked the competition with Danny Dimes and Justin Jefferson. Of course crediting any victory to a Giant is laughable at this point given how bad they played Monday night.

Slo Bros (2-2) 5th Place 554 pts

This loss is pretty straight forward, the other team had CMC and we did not. Kyle Pitts, Tony Pollard, and George Pickens were all big disappointments in this matchup while Kyren Williams rebounds as the zero RB hero.

StephWuGee (2-2) 6th Place 546.35 pts

My main event team lost this week dropping us from 4th to 6th place. The decision to sit Nico Collins for Tutu Atwell proved to be a huge mistake in this one. Our team is still in a very strong position to move up the ranks and make a competitive run.

FFPC FantasyPros Championship

Ball Knower (1-3) 12th Place 425.10 pts

The teams in the contest are not looking pretty. It is hard to imagine entering the season that the Bengals would be this bad, and when you have Burrow double stacked with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins I regret to inform you that this is the result.

Super Shorty (0-4) 12th Place 457.10 pts

I do not like to be all doom and gloom, but things are not looking good for this Mahomes/Kelce team so far. Taylor Swift better turn things around quick because I cannot shake it off with these losses.

Scott Fishbowl 13

I mentioned my Scott Fish Bowl team last week and I am happy to report that I had an almost 300 pt fantasy performance week 4. My team put up 297.43 pts, sky rocketing me to first place in the Whataburger Dallas Live division and 17th place overall in Scott Fish Bowl 13! Here is my squad below

Week 5 Waiver Priorities for FFPC/NFFC

Below are all the players I like for Week 5 for FFPC and NFFC leagues. I break down all players into tiers with FAAB suggestions, followed by analysis, and a list of players to consider dropping. These tiers can be used for deeper leagues as well as a good guide for players worth targeting on waivers. If you play in home leagues most top tier players are still good bets, but it is unnecessary to dig deep into lower tiers as there are better players at the position likely available on your waivers. All stats and data for this article are pulled from Fantasy Life, PFF, and Ben Gretch of Stealing Signals.

Tier 1

Jaleel McLaughlin, Justice Hill, Josh Downs, Michael Wilson

Suggested FAAB 10-20%

Jaleel McLaughlin is one of the best waiver options for the week after Javonte Williams suffered a hip injury. Most reports say the injury is not serious, but the Broncos would be smart to not push Williams, however we have no evidence of the Broncos staff being smart up to this point. Published medical studies in the past have demonstrated quadricep weakness and knee extension dysfunction often occurs as a result from ACL tears. Conclusions from studies suggest that hip and ankle extensors may overcompensate for knee extension movement deficiencies leading to an increased injury risk following ACL recovery, which could possibly be the case with Williams who suffered a multi ligament knee tear. McLaughlin worked as the early down back after Williams left the game, putting up 72 yards on 7 rush attempts and catching 3 passes for 32 yds and 1 TD. However, Samaje Perine took over short yardage and goal line work, which is unsurprising given McLaughlin’s smaller stature. If Williams does miss time McLaughlin should have a sizable roll and be the preferred option to Perine, but I question the standalone value when Williams returns and he should not be viewed as more than a handcuff long term (on a team that is not very good). I would proceed cautiously and not break the bank on FAAB bids here.

Justice Hill returned from toe injury last week but only played on 7 snaps, all in the first half, in which he was an efficient runner going for 33yds on 3 carries. Gus Edwards lead the backfield after logging a full week of practice dominating early downs, short yardage, and even third down snaps. I believe the Ravens were being cautious with Hill and easing him back into the offense and expect him to earn bigger role going forward, especially in pass work.

Josh Downs ran a higher route percentage in week 4 (87%) than week 3 (84%), however there was a big drop off from 27% targets and 27% TPPR in week 3 to 13% targets 13% and 12% TPPR in week 4. These numbers were still the 2nd best among wide receivers on the team and Alec Pierce is likely to miss next week’s game with a concussion.

Michael Wilson earned his starting role back in week 3 surpassing Rondale Moore for the Cardinals WR2 role. In Week 3 Wilson had 2 receptions for 86 yards, then in Week 4 Wilson more than doubled his receptions with 7 and got his first 2 TDs of his career. Wilson has been very efficient to start his career and is averaging 14.8 YPT making him a priority waiver add at wide receiver this week.

Tier 2

Wan’Dale Robinson, Joshua Dobbs, Durham Smythe, Logan Thomas

Suggested FAAB 5-10%

Wan’Dale Robinson took over as the Giants slot receiver, if you read last week’s write up you should already be familiar with my psychic abilities. Paris Campbell still rotated into the slot often, but Robinson posted a season high 63% of routes and earned 37% WOPR. The downside aside from fantasy unfriendly rotation is the Giants offense looks abysmal, and Robinson is being targeted at a team low 2.7 aDOT. I am still willing to bet on Robinson’s big play ability and hope he can soon have the slot role to himself.

Joshua Dobbs I am including as a waiver target with bye weeks fast approaching and teams needing QB streamer options. Reports are that Kyler Murray is not ready to come off PUP and is still weeks aways, meanwhile the Cardinals are playing better than expected with Dobbs leading the charge. Dobbs has a 70.7% completion percentage, ranking 7th best among QBs and has earned a 99.4 grade in PFFs NFL metric ranking 10th best among QBs while throwing 0 interceptions. Dwain McFarland of fantasy life also notes that Dobbs is 5th in the NFL in designed rush attempts at 17%.

Durham Smythe reestablished his role after a flukey injury combined with a massive workload loss to UDFA rookie Julian Hill during week 3. If you need a TE in the TEP format for the upcoming weeks Smythe retains a solid yet unspectacular role for an offense that clearly does not look to target the TE frequently.

Logan Thomas returned to his normal role in week 4 running 77% of routes, with 3 receptions and 41 receiving yards, second most on the team. There was some concern after missing week 3 with a concussion that rookie Cole Turner who split routes in Thomas’s absence and earned 25% target share could cut into his route share, but this was not the case.

Tier 3

Tyler Conklin, Gerald Everett, Latavius Murray, Ronnie Rivers, Trayveon Williams, Keaton Mitchell

Suggested FAAB 3-7%

Tyler Conklin saw 6 targets, second most on the team while playing on 40 offensive snaps and running 23 routes in week 4. If Zach Wilson continues to improve Conklin could be a viable streaming option for the upcoming bye weeks, however that is a big if.

Gerald Everett will likely be the lead receiving TE if Donald Parham wrist injury is serious and he misses time and could be added as streamer during this time. However, when Parham returns Everett is not fantasy relevant and it is Parham who should remain the priority stash as a favorite red zone target for the Chargers.

Latavius Murray continues to see work as a pass down back, running 13 routes and seeing 2 targets besting James Cook who ran 9 routes and saw 1 target. PFF attributes Murray playing on every 3rd and long in the first 3 quarters either running the ball or a pass route for some of these numbers in which he could continue to cut into Cook’s pass work.. Ben Gretch notes that he does not expect Murray to continue to see 45% of routes and this feels like a single week outlier. Murray could be used as desperation start for bye weeks and still holds massive contingent value in Buffalo offense.

Ronnie Rivers saw 27% of snaps, handled 26% of rush attempts, ran 20% of routes and saw 26% TPPR after Sean McVay spoke of reducing Kyren William’s workload from 100% of snaps in week 3. Zack Evans continues to remain a healthy scratch for games signaling Rivers is the clear RB2 on the team. With a thin waiver wire for RB position at this point you could do worse than to stash the RB2 in the Rams offense.

Trayveon Williams continues to prove he is the RB2 in the Bengals offense as Chris Evans is a healthy scratch once again and rookie Chase Brown only played on 2% of offensive snaps. The role does not appear to be what we envisioned this off season as the entire offense has taken a massive hit. I still hope as Burrow’s health improves and so does this offense (as do my best ball shares) and Williams remains one of the better RB2 stashes.

Keaton Mitchell is eligible to return from IR this week and also has potential to work into the backfield rotation. During the preseason the UDFA was averaging 6 YPC before his shoulder injury, and as discussed last week has good speed and pass catching ability. Mitchell is worth picking up as a wait and see stash as this backfield continues to shake out.

Tier 4

Emari Demercado, Chase Edmonds, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Rico Dowdle

Suggested FAAB <1-3%

Emari Demercado is the RB2 for Arizona as long as Keontay Ingram remains sidelined with neck injury. Demercado saw the highest percentage of snaps week 4 at 36% than any other Cardinal backup RB has on this season. Demercado ran a route on 38% of dropbacks more than James Conner at 36% and had a 10% target share, doubling James Conner at 5%.

Chase Edmonds could be ready to return week 6 after the Bucs by week and the RB2 role is far from solidified at this point. Sean Tucker seemingly lost out to KeShawn Vaughn, who was horribly inefficient on his opportunities week 4, leaving the door open for Edmonds to make a move upon his return.

Ke’Shawn Vaughn took over as the RB2 in Tampa Bay this week after Sean Tucker was healthy and active and played on no offensive snaps. Unfortunately, similarly to the other Tampa Bay backs Vaughn was very inefficient as a rusher only logging 16 yds on 9 carries. It remains to be seen if Vaughn can maintain the backup role.

Rico Dowdle is still the RB2 in Dallas and has massive contingent upside in event anything happens to Pollard. We are safe to ignore most of the usage in last week’s blowout where other backs mixed in for some work and Dowdle was banged up, but reports are no serious injuries.

Tier 5

Darnell Washington, Jonnu Smith, Trey Palmer, Terrace Marshall

Suggested FAAB <1%

Darnell Washington split time after TE Pat Freiermuth sustained a hamstring injury in 3rd quarter and is reported as likely to miss 2-3 weeks. The Steelers ran mostly 11 personnel and did not put the two TEs on field at same time. Washington saw more snaps (25), ran more routes (9), and was only one to see a target…did you know Darnell Washington has 11” hands?!

Jonnu Smith is running the majority of the TE routes for the Falcon offense, while Kyle Pitts is playing the majority of snaps in the slot or out wide. Jonnu has an average of 64% of routes, 21% of targets, and 26%TPRR on the season. He is a solid streamer if you need help at the position, however I look to avoid Atlanta’s passing game whenever possible.

Trey Palmer took over in 11 personnel and all 12 personnel plays after Mike Evans left with hamstring injury, and would likely move into the Evan’s should he miss time. The Bucs do have a week 5 bye week so continue to monitor the situation.

Terrace Marshall saw a bump in playing time with Jonathan Mingo sidelined and earned 38%TPRR on just 67% of routes. It will be interesting to see how Marshall is used when Jonathan Mingo returns as he appears to have some upside if he can earn a larger role in the offense.

Tier 6

Jordan Mason, Trey Sermon, Foster Moreau, Jimmy Graham, Andrei losivas, Trenton Irwin

Suggested FAAB <1%

Jordan Mason is next man up in 49ers depth chart after Elijah Mitchell missed last game with a knee injury.

Trey Sermon is currently running as the RB2 on the Colts and remains my least favorite of the stash options. Sermon played on 17% of snaps and ran 17% of routes Week 4 but had no targets. Sermon’s value as a bench stash is contingent on when Jonathan Taylor returns and it is beginning to sound like that could be very soon.

Foster Moreau could fill in if Juwan Johnson misses time but still has to compete with the corpse of Jimmy Graham.

Jimmy Graham is seeing the second most work of the Saints TEs and now Juwan Johnson could miss time with a calf injury, this is a desperation only play.

Andrei Iosivas was used in the only play run in 12 personnel last week with Higgins before the injury, on this small of a sample it is hard to know much. Still with Higgins broken ribs is likely to miss decent bit of time. The rookie out of Princeton is a former track star with elite speed running a 4.43 sec 40 yd dash at the combine.

Trenton Irwin took over on the outside after the half sharing time with Andrei Iosivas. Irwin was the only one to see a target he parlayed into 17 yards. There is some uncertainty how the rest of receiver room will shake out if Higgins misses time, so picking up as a deep bench stash is not the worst idea.

Drops

Melvin Gordon, Damien Harris, Julian Hill, Greg Dulcich, Kylen Granson, Sean Tucker, Mecole Hardman, Dalton Schultz, Devin Singletary, Chase Claypool

Week 5 Priority Home League Targets

I wanted to include some players for all you home league heros out there! These players are rostered in <50% of ESPN leagues, I did not include any players from section above, however as mentioned previously most of the early tiers are still good targets. I listed the players in my ranked order instead of breaking into tiers for how I prioritize them and offer FAAB suggestions ranges for each player followed by a list of droppable players.

Romeo Doubs (33.9% Rostered ESPN; Suggested FAAB 10-25%) has put up career best numbers in receptions and yards since being off injury report, with his best output in week 4, where he had 9 catches for 95 yards. While it should be noted that Christian Watson remained limited this game and Green Bay was in a trailing blowout game script, Doubs continues to play well and earn targets at an elite rate. If you are thin at the wide receiver position Doubs is one of the better options available and should be a solid starter going forward.

Josh Palmer (47% Rostered ESPN; Suggested FAAB 10-25%) tied Keenan Allen week 4 for 97% of routes run while boasting a team high 35% of targets, 27% TPPR, and 50% of air yards for the week. Currently Palmer is running significantly ahead of other receivers and should be rostered where available. However, I am still leaving the light on for rookie Quentin Johnston to come on stronger after the bye, who saw a significant increase in his route and target share from week 3 (26% and 6%) to (71% and 13%) in week 4.

CJ Stroud (32% Rostered ESPN; Suggested FAAB 5-10%) is a worthy waiver target, especially with bye weeks now factoring in and many teams need a viable QB option. Stroud has 3 consecutive games of 275+ passing yards with 2 passing TDs and has zero interceptions on this season. Stroud maintains the 3rd highest drop back rate (172) and 3rd highest YPA(8.0) making him an efficiency monster. The biggest knock to Stroud’s ceiling is lack of rushing ability, but I still believe he could finish as low end QB1 and deserves to be rostered in leagues.

Matthew Stafford (33.6% Rostered ESPN; Suggested FAAB 5-10%) is another QB who should be rostered with bye weeks fast approaching. Stafford has the most drop backs on the season (183), and is number one in PFF’s big time throw metric (11). Did I mention Stafford could get Cooper Kupp back who is eligible to return off IR and is one of the best WRs in the league?!

Chuba Hubbard (17.9% Rostered ESPN; Suggested FAAB 5-10%) played more than Miles Sanders in Week 4 and was more efficient on the per touch basis. Sanders had been on injury report with groin injury all week so it is likely this explains the efficiency gap. Hubbard did prove that he is capable of handling an every down bell cow work load and should be a high priority waiver wire target this week, especially in the event Sanders remains limited and/or effected by groin injury.

Tyjae Spears (20.3% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 3-7%) had 5 rush attempts and had 3 catches week 4. The rookie has been playing very well, ranking 10th amongst RBs in PFF run grade metric, 3rd in yards after contact per attempt (5.15), and 2nd in PFF elusive rating (137.4) which isolates the success a running back separate from blocking. Spears is already getting most of the pass catching role seeing 14 targets which ranks 12th among RBs, and rates as an elite pass blocker with a 90.2 grade which is 2nd best, making me even more bullish he will earn more touches and opportunity. Spears still needs more touches before we can comfortably start him but his contingent value is massive on this offense, he is a great waiver add.

Tyler Boyd (33.1% Rostered ESPN; Suggested FAAB 3-7%) should be the next receiver up after Tee Higgins suffered a rib fracture Week 4 and is said likely to miss 2-4 weeks. We have seen Boyd fill in admirably for Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase in past, however the Bengals offense has been playing like a shell of its former self. Still, if you need a WR in next few weeks Boyd should be a viable option.

Jameson Williams (16.3% Rostered ESPN; Suggested FAAB 3-7%) saw his suspension for violating the NFL gambling policy reduced after they made some policy adjustments. Williams was a high first round pick the year prior coming off an ACL injury and was only active six games in which he saw between 8-18 snaps and only recorded one catch. Williams has yet to have much of a chance and should get some opportunity given his high draft capital, but could easily take some time to ramp up or become a bust after all…high risk/ high reward with this one.

Rasheed Shaheed (21% Rostered ESPN; Suggested FAAB 1-3%) saw 7 targets and 22%TPPR which was the most of the wide receiver group Week 4, but his route percentage dropped from season high 84% week 3 to 74% in week 4. Shaheed remains a volatile start until he can maintain a higher route percentage on this offense.

Marvin Mims (17.3% Rostered ESPN; Suggested FAAB 1-3%) did see an increase in offense snaps tying Brandon Johnson for 17. This is still no where near the increased role those of us bullish on the receiver wanted to see however the Broncos did only run 48 offensive plays. Mims was efficient on his 2 targets once again parlaying them into 47 yards. Mims has been excellent earning 86.2 receiving grade from PFF ranking 8th behind fellow rookie sensation Puka Nacua. If Mims gets a bigger role watch out this kid is special.

Zay Jones (38.5% Rostered ESPN; Suggested FAAB 1-3%) was dropped in several leagues as he was out with knee injury. When he returns Jones is still worth a roster spot after seeing a little over 20% target share to start the season.

Jake Ferguson (24.5% Rostered ESPN; Suggested FAAB 1-3%) saw his highest receptions 7 and receiving yards 77 of career. Ferguson didn’t see the route increase we wanted still only running 69%, but some could be attributed to the blowout where several backups saw snaps in the fourth quarter. Ferguson still has an elite 28% TPPR this season, second only to Travis Kelce.

Luke Musgrave (34.8% Rostered ESPN; Suggested FAAB 1-3%) is seeing massive opportunity running between 80-86% of routes the first 3 weeks and put up top 10 fantasy numbers to match. However proceed cautiously if you need a streamer this week as he left week 4 with a concussion and could miss this week if he doesn’t clear protocol.

Drops

Mike Williams, Jamaal Williams, Nick Chubb, JK Dobbins, Aaron Rodgers, Chase Claypool, Alec Pierce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, AJ Dillon, Dalvin Cook, Damien Harris, Devin Singletary, Skyy Moore, Van Jefferson, Allen Lazard, Allen Robinson, Antonio Gibson, Jerick Mckinnon, Kadarius Toney