Week 2 is Here

Working a day job, being a new content writer, commissioning a couple dynasty leagues, and managing a slew of high stakes teams for the Ship Chasing has proven to be bit of a learning curve on the time management side of things. I also returned home from Vegas and could not get WiFi on either of my flights so I was behind the eight ball a bit and attempting to catch up on some sleep… because who parties in Vegas?! This led me to prioritize getting waivers done and teams set, because that is ultimately a very expensive responsibility that I do not take lightly, and this came at the expense of completing a writeup before the Wednesday evening waiver run for FFPC and NFFC. The good news is I am already learning to streamline my process and optimize my time more efficiently. Without further delay here are some of my thoughts on Week 2 and a bit of a recap for how we did on waivers so far.

All stats and data used for this article was pulled from PFF, Fantasy Life, Pat Kerrane of Legendary Upside, and Ben Gretch of Stealing Signals.

Ship Chasing Adventures

This year I am working with the wonderful gentlemen of Ship Chasing to manage their high/mid stakes teams, as well as my own, consisting of 6 FFPC Main Event teams, 4 NFFC Primetime teams, 2 FantasyPros Championship teams, and 1 NFFC Silver Bullet this year. I had the honor of drafting two teams live this year in Las Vegas, a FFPC main event with CGeeeeee and WuTangKillaBees and an NFFC Primetime with Pete Overzet, Pat Kerrane, and Ben Gretch. Vegas was an amazing once in a lifetime experience I want to run back every year possible, only made better by meeting the Ship Chasing team in person. Pete, Pat and Gretch are some of the most genuine, humble, and down to earth people I have ever met; not to mention wicked smart, damn funny and a blast to party with… what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas.

Please watch Ship Chasing now on Thursday nights for football watch parties this year, where I will be doing a weekly waiver segment as well. If you saw this week’s episode, you know not getting my article finished was not my only mishap, as an audio malfunction cut my debut very short…gotta love live streaming right?! After this week one thing is abundantly clear, waiver queen yes, tech lord no, but I can laugh at myself and move on with a positive attitude because I have a good feeling this season will all be absolutely FAABulous.

High Stakes Waiver Priorities

I broke down our waiver wire targets for Week 2 into tiers and assigned a suggested % range of FAAB budget for players based on these tiers. If you have any of the players listed in the top tiers available in your league go get them, however you do not need to be as aggressive with bid amounts in more casual home league formats, many lower tier players are not home league priorities as better players are likely available.

My early season waiver strategy is to look for the best players available and guys that could become true difference makers. Do not get caught up in a perceived positional weakness early on and miss the guy you need. I promise, later in the season it is relatively easy to find startable flex value and roster depth at positions of need or as bye week fill-ins on the waiver wire. The difficulty is finding a true superstar or league winner on the waiver wire, so don’t miss the opportunity because your filling in holes or scared of what could happen…be aggressive and secure these players for your team.

Tier 1

Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, Justice Hill

Suggested FAAB 40-70%

The tier one players from this week were guys who I felt fit the mold as potential difference makers and were our highest priority, unfortunately not all these players were readily available in our leagues.

Puka Nacua was the waiver darling on the week. Cooper Kupp is on IR with a hamstring injury (again) guaranteeing a minimum four game absence, and Van Jefferson still seemingly is not very good, leaving a huge vacancy in the Ram’s offense that needs to be filled by someone with a bit more size than short king Tutu Atwell. Wide Receivers (unlike running backs) do matter, at least talent wise. Puka just might be that talented earning 14 targets at what can be a sustainable rate, based an absurd 34% first read target rate that Pat Kerrane sites as a more predicitve metric than TPRR. If Puka is available bid aggressively, he is the clear number 1 priority of the week.

Kyren Williams was believed to have won the third down role and was easily one of my favorite late round best ball targets, coinciding with my second consecutive year fade of Cam Akers. I forget if I am allowed to talk about my best ball teams during the season now, better check with Pete for official word. I was still surprised to see Kyren lead with 63% of snaps and was excited to see Williams was the clear pass option with 74% route share, and received 100% of work in the 2-minute offense, as noted by Dwain McFarland. While I still have a lot of trust issues when it come to McVay and running backs, Williams is a priority add where available.

Justice Hill is in a great situation after JK Dobbins suffered another horrific season ending (possibly career ending) achilles injury. My heart breaks for Dobbins, as a young man with immense talent who may never have the opportunity to reap the benefits for what he has dedicated his young life to thus far. I pray for Dobbin’s mental health as much as his physical recovery, an often overlooked aspect of the tolls injuries take on players. That being said, as terrible as this injury is, the Ravens is an offense I have been excited about drafting all offseason. Justice Hill has the better receiving profile than Gus Edwards and played ahead even before the Dobbins injury leading in snaps, routes run, and HVT, making Hill my preferred target of the two.

Tier 2

Rashid Shaheed, Tutu Atwell, Josh Kelley, Gus Edwards

Suggested FAAB 15-25%

Rashid Shaeed only ran 66% of routes, but with 40% of team’s end zone targets and a 16.2 aDOT he seems like a big play waiting to happen, I want to scoop up and hold where available.

Tutu Atwell had very strong first read target rate of his own at 26% and got there on more YPT thanks to a deep 16.3 aDOT. Tutu is a legitimate starter as long as Kupp remains sidelined, but he could prove to be a more boom/bust player throughout the season.

Josh Kelley was interesting before Austin Ekeler injury news and looks to have standalone value in the Charger offense with a 49% snap share.

Tier 3A

Hunter Henry, Dawson Knox, Durham Smythe

Suggested FAAB 5-12% (FFPC), 3-5% (NFFC)

Note some people forget FFPC is tight end premium.

Durham Smythe could be another win for BBM3 champ, Pat Kerrane, who was in on Smythe as a late round TE target for bestball this season. Smthye had a 91% route rate (2nd best of the week behind only goose egg Goedert) and 7 targets on what I must say is looking like a damn good Dolphin offense.

Hunter Henry benefitted from a higher than expected pass rate from a trailing Patriot team and is easily one of the more exciting pieces of the Patriot offense. Henry had a 72% route participation, 11.83 aDOT, and 25% of end zone targets, I am adding where available.

Dawson Knox had a great 78% route rate despite Dalton Kincaid who also had a 76% route rate but is being used all over formation and may not really be a TE. Regardless, the Bills are running an absurdly high amount of 12 personnel sets on 57% of dropbacks.

Tier 3B

Zack Ertz, Adam Trautman, Logan Thomas

Suggested FAAB 1-5% FFPC, 1% NFFC

Do not forget FFPC is TEP

Zach Ertz had an absurd 91% route rate and 33% target share! I am still very confused by this Cardinal offense, and am less optimistic about any of the players on this team.

Adam Trautman only had 62% route rate, but led the team with 5 receptions and now Greg Dulcich is ruled out with an injury.

Logan Thomas could be the Travis Kelce of Commanders (kidding, maybe) with a solid 78% route share and 8 targets, but had a couple dropped balls, and the Commander offense looked a bit shaky. Also curious to see if Terry McLaurin begins to demand more focus as his health improves.

Tier 4

Kendrick Bourne, Calvin Austin, and Josh Downs

Suggested FAAB 1-5%

Kendrick Bourne looks to be the WR1 for the Patriots leading all wide receivers with a 93% route and 21% target share.

Calvin Austin appears to be Dionte Johnson’s direct backup who has calf injury and should see increase playing time.

Josh Downs had 77% route share and 7 targets (only 3 deemed catchable) However, the Colts played very fast which should create more play volume to go around and were not as run heavy as feared possible.

Tier 5

Robert Woods, Allen Robinson, Trayveon Williams

Suggested FAAB 1%

Robert Woods earned 23% target share in Week 1 for Houston and has secured a sizable role in the offense.

Allen Robinson tied George Pickens for 56 snaps and led team with 8 targets.

Trayveon Williams looks to be the number 2 back for the Bengals. Williams ran a route on 26% drop backs, but earned no targets. Chris Evans 1 target came late in the game.

Tier 6

Kylen Granson, Salvon Ahmed, Matt Breida

Suggested FAAB <1%

Kylen Granson had good role with 72% route share and 6 targets emerging as the TE to have for the Colts, at least as long as Jelani Woods remains out.

Salvon Ahmed is currently running as Dolphin’s RB2, he played 19 snaps and had 3 targets.

Matt Breida remains elite handcuff and stash should anything happen to Saquon Barkley.

High Stakes Wednesday Waiver Wins

Justice Hill (Tier 1) Won 5 shares, winning bid range $552- $658

Rashid Shaheed (Tier 2) Won 2 shares, winning bid range $152-$248

Tutu Atwell (Tier 2) won 5 shares, winning bid range $168-$247

Hunter Henry (Tier 3A) Won 1 share, winning bid $22

Durham Smythe (Tier 3A) won 5 shares, winning bid range $32-$56

Adam Trautman (Tier 3B) won 1 share, winning bid $32

Kendrick Bourne (Tier 4) won 1 share, winning bid $257

Calvin Austin (Tier 4) won 2 shares, winning bid range $32-$33

Kylen Granson (Tier 6) won 1 share, winning bid $2

Player drops Justyn Ross, Richie James, JK Dobbins, Evan Hull, Jaleel McLaughlin, D’Onte Foreman, Jeff Wilson, Chris Evans, Gerald Everrette, Michael Mayer, Greg Dulcich, Trey McBride

One Last Thing…

Puka Nacua was only available in two leagues, one being my FantasyPros Championship team.

Stat Chasing bid $600 and lost to a winning bid $637

FantasyPros Championship bid $602 and lost to a winning bid $711

However one Ship Chasing team did win Puka Nacua…

The Chasing Stolen Bananas team is managed by Shawn Siegele and they won secured Puka with a winning bid of $859, the next highest bid was $669. Anyone familiar with Shawn Siegele should not be surprised that Shawn aggressively targets players he wants for his team.