Welcome to Week 14

Wow, we made it this is the end, the final frontier, the last week for waivers. I want to once again thank everyone for your support and reading my newsletter every week, it means the world to me. I also want to say I plan on continuing to write some updates for how our teams are performing in the post season, so this is not the last you will hear from me this football season. I hope this weekly write-up has helped you find success in some way, and I hope many of you have a team make it to the championships in these high stakes tournaments and/or your home leagues. I also want to thank Pete Overzet, Pat Kerrane, and Ben Gretch for trusting me to help run their high stakes teams and providing me the opportunity to work with them this season.

Alright a couple quick notes on strategy here, if you are heading into the championship round take the time to ensure your team is set for the remainder of the season, after Saturday or Sunday there are no more pickups you can make for your team. When making bids this week look at how much money opponents have left and see if they have obvious holes in their roster where you can block them from a waiver pickup this week…do what it takes to move on and play for the big money. You need backups at the onsie positions, this has been a devastating season for injuries, please don’t let a promising season end tragically because you don’t have a backup. Get an extra defense and kicker, luckily defenses cannot get injured and those of you playing on NFFC have the benefit of team kicker, but it is December and for many places around the country that are not Texas and Florida where I have lived my entire life, that means cold weather.

I recently spoke to the most notorious FFPC main event expert I know, Dom Baranyi, one of the members of the renowned '“Go Bills” team who won back-to-back main event championships, to get his thoughts on kicker strategy. Should we be prioritizing adding upside at a weaker position or a second kicker?

There you have it folks, “Kicker Chasing” to end my waiver write-up for this fantasy football season, ROLL THE CLIP!

First a Look at Week 13

Week 13 Waiver Wire Wins

When I say “wins” it is in reference to player(s) won on the waiver wire, not a performance evaluation. Because I am releasing this article after the conclusion of week 13 many things in hindsight may not be a win after all. I include this section not for bragging rights or victory laps, but rather to keep myself accountable and demonstrate that I am in fact bidding on many of the players I am writing about (for better and worse).

Derek Carr

Winning bid $21, other league price won $1

Joe Flacco

Winning bid $73

Kenny Pickett

Winning bid $6, other leagues price range won $1-$88

D’Ernst Johnson

Winning bid $17, other leagues price range won $12-$14

Patrick Taylor

Winning bid $3, other league won $55

Kendre Miller

Winning bid $2

Jalin Hyatt (2 shares)

Winning bids $28, $73, other leagues price range won $7-$55

Jameson Williams

Winning bid $23

DeVante Parker

Winning bid $38, other leagues price range won $1-$80

Brevin Jordan (4 shares)

Winning bids $3, $5, $27, $88, other leagues price range won $3-$82

Greg Dulcich

Winning bid $1, other league price range won $3-$7

Chargers Defense (3 shares)

Winning bid $3, $1, $1, other leagues price range won $1-$44

Jacksonville Defense

Winning bid $27

Texan Defense

Winning bid $1, other leagues price range won $11

Tampa Bay Defense

Winning bid $1, other leagues price range won $4-$9

Tampa Bay Kicker

Winning Bids $1

Miami Kicker

Winning bid $2, other leagues price range won $2-$14

Week 13 Standings

NFFC Prime Time

Buckeye Boomers (9-4) 1st Place 1925.25 pts

Not all wins are pretty and this team sat Geno Smith’s 40 burger in favor of Sam Howell, but it did enough to win the week, thanks to a bounce back LaPorta performance. This team boasts the best H2H record and a 31 point lead over the team in 2nd place, I am excited to see how far the Boomers can go in the championships.

Ship Taeking (5-8) 10th Place 1598 pts

I told you last week, its Joever… there is no coming Barak from this loss.

Ship Chasing (6-7) 5th Place 1816.50 pts

This team suffered a devastating loss this week at the hands of the injury Gods. They had Lamar Jackson on bye week 13 and decided to churn Will Levis for Kenny Pickett, the team also started D’Andre Swift and not so Scary Terry. The team is now a long shot for the 3 seed having fallen 54 pts behind the 3rd place team, there is still hope that the team could qualify for a wild card spot.

Waiver Chasing (9-4) 5th Place 1739.75 pts

My team won the matchup in week 13 after agonizing over who to start at quarterback between Geno Smith and Matthew Stafford, and wouldn’t you know both put up ceiling performances. Hollywood Brown continues to be the bane of my existence putting up points on the bench and zeros in the lineup. We are sitting 35 points out of 3rd with other teams with higher scores ahead and cannot win based on H2H record, so our main hope is to qualify for a wildcard spot at this point or a massive outlier fantasy performance.

NFFC Super12 Team

Shark Jumping (8-5) 1st Place 1904 pts

They lost their matchup after starting Justin Watson and Drake London in week 13. Lucky for this team the loss didn’t really matter much as they are stilled tied in best H2H record and have a 46 pts lead over the 2nd place team heading into the final week of the regular season.

NFFC Silver Bullet

Ship Chasing Single Bullet (7-6) 4th Place 1840.25 pts

The magic Single Bullet won week 13 after playing Geno Smith in a perceived difficult matchup, Nico is HIM Collins, and Chargers defense. Now in the last week of the regular season and there is less than 5 points separation between this team and the team in third place… we have a battle here!

FFPC Main Event

Chasin’ Go Bills (#2 Seed)

This team already has earned a spot into the Championship round but will still fight for league championship title after a very narrow victory in week 13 sealed by the Jacksonville Defense.

SC (Mini Episodes) (#2 Seed)

This team had a blow out victory in week 13 despite leaving the highest scoring players Geno Smith and DK Metcalf on the bench. I have to say it one more time… this team Fucks!

Chasing Stolen Bananas (#3 Seed)

This team is sitting in the 3rd seed and has to earn a spot into the championship round by winning the league championship in weeks 13 and 14. Well they blew the other team out of the water this week with a dominant performance that really was a team effort, and waiver darling of the year Puka Nacua helped seal the victory.

Five Horsemen (#1 Seed)

The horsemen are chillaxin these couple weeks already locking up the one seed, but still came out big winners in week 13. I think this was the only team brave enough to start Brock Purdy and like many other teams in the portfolio featured the breakout star rookie TE for this year … Sam I am better than Dalton Kincaid Laporta (sorry Liam).

StephWuGee (#4 Seed)

We won the first matchup for league champion with the still elite Joe Flacco at quarterback and savior Nico Collins. Now we have Lamar Jackson back from week 13 bye and can earn a spot in the championships with one more win this week.

Scott Fish Bowl 13

Stephmiller40 #349

Week 13 was a difficult one and a lot of teams got knocked out of round 2 of the playoffs, so I still consider myself #blessed. I scored 239 pts this week, but fell all the way to 349th overall. There are still 2 more playoff weeks followed by a semi finals and finals round so plenty of time to make my way back to the top of the leaderboard.

Week 14 Waiver Priorities NFFC/FFPC

Below are all the players I like for Week 14 for FFPC and NFFC leagues. This article is also viable for those of you who play in deeper league formats and dynasty leagues, as I try and go deep into the player pool. I will break down all players into tiers, followed by analysis. There are no FAAB suggestions this week, because there is no reason to be saving money, this is the end folks. There is no drop list, its all about optimization for your roster at this point and setting yourself up for post season success!

All stats and data for this article are pulled from Fantasy Life, PFF, Ben Gretch of Stealing Signals, and ETR defense v position FPOE chart and PROE. If you have questions feel free to reach out to me on twitter @stephmiller57 or find me in the Deposit Kingdom Discord, good luck everyone!

Tier 1

Tucker Kraft, Brevin Jordan, Dontayvion Wicks, DeVante Parker, Jonathan Mingo, Chase Brown, DeeJay Dallas

Tucker Kraft ran 74% of routes and saw 6 targets, the second most targets on the team. Christian Watson could miss time with an injury which could lead to more opportunity for Kraft as well, he is one of my favorite TE stashes that could offer upside at the position.

Brevin Jordan ran 72% of routes and had 3 receptions in week 13 where he filled in for Dalton Schultz at TE. Now that Tank Dell is done for the year the Texans need help in the pass game and could need Jordan to step up and have a role while Schultz remains out.

Dontayvion Wicks would see a big opportunity increase in the event Christian Watson misses time after suffering yet another hamstring injury. Watson has already missed time earlier this season with a similar hamstring injury after an injury riddled rookie campaign. There are no official reports as of yet stating if Watson misses time, but given his history with soft tissue injuries and recent multi game absence, I would expect Watson to miss at least 1-2 weeks dependent on severity. This opportunity vacancy on an ascending offense where Jordan Love has demonstrated massive improvement in his QB play finishing week 13 with the highest PFF pass grade among QBs (90.6) is a situation I want to attack. Green Bay also has the 3rd best schedule for wide receivers for the rest of the season.

DeVante Parker saw 9 target and 142 air yards in the week 13 game operating as the clear number 1 without Demario Douglas. Douglas has been ruled out so we can expect another game where Parker assumes the lead role again in what is sure to ugly Thursday night game (thank goodness for ship cast).

Jonathan Mingo led the team running 91% of routes with 38% of team targets to have his best game of the season and is now functioning as the Panthers lead receiver. The Panther offense isn’t great, but the rookie is worth an add given his role as the lead receiver under the new coaching staff. Now we can hope the Panthers can show some improvements on offense.

Chase Brown the 5th round rookie from Illinois stepped up Monday night after returning from IR and finally we saw some explosiveness as Brown had a 31 yd run, the longest run from scrimmage for the Bengals this year. I have seen enough of Mixon we want more Brown (especially my best ball shares where he is my highest pre draft exposure).

DeeJay Dallas could be the lead back for the Seahawks this week if both Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet miss the game. DeeJay Dallas has spent four seasons on the team and has filled in as lead back in the past, while 6th round rookie Kenny McIntosh, has yet to play an offensive snap in the NFL. The Seahawks have a difficult matchup against the 49ers this week but would be a starting option given the expected volume if both backs remain sidelined.

Tier 2

Joe Flacco, Jameis Winston, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chris Rodriguez, Quentin Johnston, Parker Washington

Joe Flacco is my personal hero helping take my main event team one step closer to compete in the championships. Flacco threw for 254 yds and 2 TDs with 12 targets going to his reunited best friend Elijah Moore. Flacco continues to be a boost to the pass offense and is by far the best quarterback the Browns have had all season, Flacco is still elite people.

Jameis Winston came into the week 13 game to replace Derek Carr after he left with a head injury. Carr has been dealing with a back and shoulder injury as well and could miss week 14 when the Saints play the Panthers, if he misses additional time the Saints have the 5th best ranked QB schedule for the rest of the season by PFF. Any OG fantasy player should know that famous Jameis is a fantasy goldmine with his YOLO style plays.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire is playing as the RB2 behind Isaiah Pacheco while Jerrick McKinnon remains sidelined. He is a solid stash at this point of the season, yes you know its bad when I come back around on CEH.

Chris Rodriguez could split rushing work with Antonio Gibson after the week 14 bye if Brian Robinson remains out with injury.

Quentin Johnston caught a ball folks and as soon as I was out I am back in…. sorta, kinda not really. I may not cut him just yet is best way to describe the situation. His role did bounce back as he ran 79% of routes after only 39% the week before, feel free to scoop him up if he was dropped.

Parker Washington a sixth round rookie picked took over for Christian Kirk after what appeared to be a very painful groin injury to the crown jewels going for 61 yards and a TD on 6 receptions. Kirk is set to miss significant time requiring surgery making the rookie a solid waiver add this week, keep an eye on the Trevor Lawrence health status as well.

Tier 3

Noah Gray, Noah Fant, Zach Ertz, Quentin Johnston, Cedrick Tillman, Trey Palmer

Noah Gray remains an elite TE stash with league winning upside if Travis Kelce went down.

Noah Fant saw a 60% route share Thursday night with 4 targets. Fant looked good in this game and is a good stash that could be usable if his route percentage continues to increase.

Zach Ertz hit free agency after the Cardinals agreed to release Ertz. There are a couple teams that could be in the TE market so if desperate you could pick him up and pray he signs somewhere with opportunity available.

Cedrick Tillman led the team with a 93% route share and saw 6 targets second to Elijah Moore’s 12 targets. If Amari Cooper remains sidelined I expect Tillman to have a big opportunity to step up here.

Trey Palmer continues to play a full time roll on offense and has seen a 19% target share in two consecutive weeks. Palmer is an interesting stash with big contingent upside if Godwin or Evans were to miss time.

Tier 4

Patrick Taylor, Rashaad Penny, Boston Scott, Chase Edmonds, Ty Montgomery, Michael Carter

Patrick Taylor is the clear RB2 behind AJ Dillon and ran 33% of routes, he remains an upside stash.

Rashaad Penny is what we want to make happen but has been a healthy scratch most of the season. Would we finally see Penny get work if Swift misses time, I am willing to pick him up and find out.

Boston Scott enters the conversation after D’Andre Swift took a massive hit late in the game and any additional information remains unclear at this time. Scott was active over Rashaad Penny and played on 8% of snaps. He is a viable option to pick up until we gain clarity over the Swift sitaution and if there is injury concern.

Chase Edmonds remains the clear RB2 behind Rashaad White and would be dependent on pass catching chops for usable fantasy upside in the event White was injured.

Ty Montgomery is likely to be the RB2 behind Ezekiel Elliot while Rhamondre Stevenson misses time, I don’t expect much from the Patriot offense.

Michael Carter continues to function as the clear backup to James Conner. He did not play as much in the positive game script for week 13 only running 19% of routes down from 29% the week prior, but no other backs saw touches in this one.

Tier 5

Xavier Gipson, Alec Pierce, John Metchie, Royce Freeman, Cordarrelle Patterson, Kendre Miller, Tyler Goodson

Xavier Gipson was involved in the week 13 game against the Falcons running 70% of routes with an 18% target share, second most of the wide receivers. The Jets continue there QB search releasing Tim Boyles this week after Trevor Siemian came in at quarterback and was terrible as those who came before. The Jets have picked up Brett Rypien, but have not named a starter… yay (insert crying cheerleader meme).

Alec Pierce lead the team with 136 air yards finally making good on the bets made early on that he had the potential to be a downfield threat in this offense. It was nice to see Pierce flash spike week potential after functioning as an olympic wind sprinter most of the season. I am willing to stash in the hopes the offense can get him a few more targets.

John Metchie ran 37% of routes his most of the season and saw three targets, while Robert Woods ran a seasonal low 46% of routes and saw no targets. Metchie has opportunity to step into a larger role now that Tank Dell done for the season and is my preferred stash over Woods in this offense.

Royce Freeman is nothing more than an injury contingent stash after Kyren Williams resumed a massive bell cow role playing on 94% of offensive snaps up from 61% the week prior.

Cordarrelle Patterson continues to mix into the backfield on a team with the lowest PROE on the week -17%… this offense loves to run the ball.

Kendre Miller is back on the list as a potential stash down the stretch. Jamaal Williams is unlikely to be that guy if Kamara misses time. Kendre would most likely concede some rush work to Taysom Hill and take over Kamara’s receiving role in that situation.

Tyler Goodson played behind Zach Moss and ahead of Trey Sermon in week 13 and saw 2 targets on only 3 routes. He is a deep league flier to see if he can carve out a role behind Moss and could be the injury contingent hand cuff… anything is better than Trey Sermon.