Week 12 Priority Waiver Targets

I wanted to include some players for all you home league heros out there! These are some of my favorite players that should be available in most home leagues based on inclusion criteria of being rostered in <50% of ESPN leagues. I will list out the players in my ranked order instead of breaking into tiers for how I prioritize them. If you are in need of a spot start at certain position then feel free to prioritize those players. You may also move QBs and TEs up in priority if you play in a Super Flex or TE Premium league. I will offer FAAB suggestion ranges for each player followed by a list of droppable players. Please note you do not have to drop these players and all suggestions are general as it is impossible to cover all nuances of individual leagues. Feel free to reach out to me on twitter @stephmiller57 or find me in the Deposit Kingdom Discord with any questions, good luck everyone!

All stats and data for this article are pulled from Fantasy Life, PFF, Ben Gretch of Stealing Signals, and ETR defense v position FPOE chart and PROE.

Zach Charbonnet (32.4% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 75-100%) is a player regular readers of this newsletter should hopefully have stashed. I have tried to emphasize the importance of prioritizing rookies who have flashed talent and could earn larger roles in second half of the season, especially with injury contingency value. We have seen Charbonnet’s role grow over the previous three weeks and now Kenneth Walker has an oblique injury described by Coach Pete Carrol as “legit” but also stated Walker is not going on IR at this time. Walker will almost certainly miss Thursday at the very least. Charbonnet is a talented second round rookie and took over as a workhorse when Walker left the game, operating as the primary RB replacement in all situations. Charbonnet played 85% of offensive snaps, handled 71% of rushing share, ran a route on 68.99% of drop backs, and saw 6 targets. Deejay Dallas only mixed in sparingly to give Charbonnet a breather. Charbonnet is exceedingly the most valuable piece to be found on the waiver wire this week and if available should be bid on very aggressively… empty the clip! Some may be scared of a tough matchup Thursday against the 49ers but Charbonnet is expected to maintain an elite workhorse role in Walker’s absence and because of strong pass catching skills is not at risk to be scripted out, even if the Seahawks fall behind.

Rashid Shaheed (23.8% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 15-30%) is a high priority add now that Michael Thomas has been placed on IR with a knee injury. The Saints are coming off their bye week, but during week 10 Shaheed saw an increase in targets (9) after Thomas left with injury, compared to only 3 targets in each of the last two games prior. Shaheed is a player who has gotten there on efficiency all season as a big play threat and connecting on deep passes, now add a real potential to see a more consistent increase in volume and Shaheed is a must add addition down the stretch.

Jayden Reed (18.7% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 15-30%) saw his second highest route percentage of the season (79%) which was higher than Romeo Doubs (77%). Reed’s route participation has been anything but consistent; however, his team target share has been 13-15% for six straight weeks and saw 5 targets.targets. Reed also saw legitimate rushing work this week, 3 carries for 46yds and a TD, these carries all came before the Packer RB room was decimated by injuries. Reed should not be on waivers, he is a priority pick-up.

Isaiah Likely (0.9% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 15-30%) is thrust into relevance after Mark Andrews suffered a devastating season ending ankle injury. Likely ran 88% of routes but was only targeted once. Likely did flash as a rookie and has a 100yd game on his resume, but has mostly disappointed when Andrews missed time. I still expect Likely to be the primary receiving TE and had very good route participation for a TE making him a priority add on this usage alone in deeper and TEP leagues and a legitimate stash to see if he can earn targets on this volume.

Josh Downs (44.3% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 10-20%) maybe available after playing a limited role running 43% routes during week 10 because of a knee injury, followed up with a week 11 bye. Downs now had the week to rest and get healthy and PFF strength of schedule rates the Colts remaining schedule as second most favorable for wide receivers.

Demario Douglas (24.5% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 10-20%) had a week 11 bye giving him additional time to heal an ankle injury he played through week 10 putting up a his biggest game the year with 6 catches for 84 yards. Douglas also saw season high usage running 85% of routes and seeing 36% of team targets in week 10. Coming off the bye Douglas should continue to be the top receiver on the team with a consistent floor that is good enough to be WR3/ flex option and should not be left on the waiver wire.

Noah Brown (40.5% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 10-20%) missed week 11 with a knee injury, but hopefully returns week 12. Brown saw back to back 150+yd games previously and played ahead of Robert Woods the game prior. The Texan offense is rolling, but with all four receivers healthy there could be a bit of a rotation, but I still want pieces of this team where available.

Keaton Mitchell (35.1% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 10-20%) saw his snap share increase in week 11 (37%), playing on more snaps than Justice Hill (22%). Mitchell saw 30% rush attempts cutting into Gus Edwards early down role. Edwards will still maintain the goal line role in this offense, but it is conceivable that Mitchell takes over the third down role continuing to push out Justice Hill.

Tutu Atwell (25.3% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 3-5%) is back again as an add after Cooper Kupp suffered an ankle injury during the week 11 game and now is questionable for week 12. We have seen how this plays out the first 4 weeks of the season where Atwell saw an average 22.5% target and there is no longer have Van Jefferson on the roster. Atwell is worth an add and can be started as a WR2/3 option if Kupp misses time.

Khalil Shakir (5.4% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 3-5%) had 3 receptions for 115yds and a TD on Monday night. Shakir has been the clear WR3 since week 8 and it was good his role remain consistent through the offensive coordinator change. Shakir is still mostly an upside stash as it is difficult to trust him in starting lineups on limited target volume, but with Knox missing yet another game and a favorable matchup against the eagles who give up the most points to slot receivers, I am tempted to give Shakir flex consideration.

Odell Beckham Jr. (43.8% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 3-5%) only ran 52% of routes week 11 but saw a team high 32% of targets, giving him an absurd 41% TPRR. Beckham injured his shoulder with an AC sprain this game, the injury is said to be minor, but continue to monitor health reports. Without Mark Andrews Odell could continue to see more volume and is a solid add where available contingent on injury status/updates.

Rashod Bateman (3.7% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 3-5%) ran 76% of routes in week 11 after reaching his season high in week 10 with 77%. Bateman caught a TD on 1 of his 2 targets, but continues to trend in the right direction. The Mark Andrews injury opens a big target vacancy on offense and could lead to more opportunities for Bateman down the stretch. I also want to monitor health reports on Odell Beckham Jr. discussed above, which would increase the priority on Bateman substantially should he be limited or miss time.

Jameson Williams (14.4% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 3-5%) saw an increase in usage in 11 personnel over Kalif Raymond in the two weeks since the bye week. In week 11 Williams ran a season high 66% of routes and caught a TD, the rookie is worth a stash heading into playoffs as he is trending the right direction.

Rondale Moore (36.1% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 3-5%) played in 3 wide sets without Michael Wilson in the lineup. With 66% of routes out of the slot Moore should continue to see slot usage when Wilson returns. Be careful with Moore as he is far from safe at this point despite the box score, only seeing 2 targets this week, down from 9 in week 10. I do continue to be encouraged at his usage downfield adding to ceiling potential, but want to see more consistent volume.

Matthew Stafford (31.5% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 1-3%) is not the most glamorous option but given the slew of QB injuries he is more than viable if you need a streaming option this week. Keep an ear out on health report for receivers, but I like Stafford who should have a clean pocket going against the Cardinals 63.2 PFF graded pass (27th out of 32 teams).

Jordan Love (43.6% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 1-3%) completed 27 passes for 322 yards and 2 TDs finishing as QB11 in PPR scoring for week 11. Given all the injuries to the QB position Love is a solid option to fill this spot or hold as a backup if you are set to make playoffs, the Thanksgiving matchup versus the Lions is a favorable one for QBs where the Lions have given up an average 17.6 PPR fantasy points to the position.

Tyjae Spears (35% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 1-3%) did not have the best week 11 game, only running 4 times for 14yds and 2 catches for 12 yds. but he remains one of the best RB injury contingent handcuffs available and has consistent pass catcher role. According to PFF the Titans have the 5th best schedule for RBs for the fantasy playoffs.

Rico Dowdle (10.1% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 1-3%) saw 31% of rush attempts in week 11 after a season high 38% in week 10. Dowdle could continue to see increased usage down the stretch due to Tony Pollard’s decline in efficiency this year and has immense injury contingent upside should Pollard miss time.

Roschon Johnson (24% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 1-3%) could work his way back into the RB2 role if D’Onte Foreman misses time with an ankle injury. Foreman kept role as lead back but after injury, Khalil Herbert became primary RB with 15 carries while Johnson was given 6.

Elijah Mitchell (17.2% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 1-3%) remains limited in stand alone value but is the clear RB2 behind CMC and was the only other RB to get touches over the past 2 weeks. High value injury contingent handcuffs in great offenses should not be left on waivers heading into fantasy playoff, pick Mitchell up and stash him if available.

Kenneth Gainwell (16% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 1-3%) remains a great injury contingent stash behind one of the best O lines in the league. The Eagles also have the number one most favorable fantasy playoff schedule for running backs.

Drops

Joe Burrow, Danny Dimes, Zach Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Taylor Heinicke, Darrell Henderson, Justice Hill, Keaontay Ingram, Emari Demercado, Justice Hill, Antonio Gibson, Cam Akers, Zack Moss, Michael Gallup, Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, DJ Chark, Darnell Mooney, Michael Thomas, Mark Andrews, Irv Smith, Hayden Hurst