Week 11 Priority Waiver Targets

I wanted to include some players for all you home league heros out there! These are some of my favorite players that should be available in most home leagues based on inclusion criteria of being rostered in <50% of ESPN leagues. I will list out the players in my ranked order instead of breaking into tiers for how I prioritize them. If you are in need of a spot start at certain position then feel free to prioritize those players. You may also move QBs and TEs up in priority if you play in a Super Flex or TE Premium league. I will offer FAAB suggestion ranges for each player followed by a list of droppable players. Please note you do not have to drop these players and all suggestions are general as it is impossible to cover all nuances of individual leagues. Feel free to reach out to me on twitter @stephmiller57 or find me in the Deposit Kingdom Discord with any questions, good luck everyone!

All stats and data for this article are pulled from Fantasy Life, PFF, Ben Gretch of Stealing Signals, and ETR defense v position FPOE chart and PROE.

Josh Dobbs (38.9% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 25-50%) does it again folks and just like that the world has fallen in love with the guy. Dobbs led the Vikings to yet another victory in his second start for the team, missing 2 of 3 starting wide receivers, throwing for 268 yds and 1TD while rushing for 44yds and a TD. Now close your eyes and imagine Justin Jefferson back on the field next week running wild … waivers just take all my money.

Zach Charbonnet (31.4% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 25-50%) played more snaps Kenneth Walker for the third week in a row, and ran a season high 61% of routes with a 13% team target share. This increase in work is based on game script; however, as Charbonnet has completely taken over the pass down role from DeeJay Dallas during this same time. Charbonnet is playing on all 3rd downs and 2 minute drills, the Seahawks offense has run the 2nd most 2 minute drills over the past 2 weeks in the league. Kenneth Walker is still seeing the majority of early down work; however, Charbonnet has been the more successful runner as the last 3 weeks with 8 first downs compared to Walker 3 first downs on much fewer attempts. Charbonnet is a solid add that still has room to increase stand alone value if can see more rush work, and huge injury contingent upside.

Tyjae Spears (32.6% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 25-50%) played more offensive snaps than veteran Derrick Henry week 10 (61% to 41%) while running 44% of routes with an 11% team target share. This usage was game script dependent as the Titans were trailing, Henry still saw 68.99% of rush attempts to Spears 31%. Spears is a talented rookie, the problem is Henry remains one of the best runners in the league with an 82.9 PFF run grade (tied 11th best). Spears doesn’t have a big enough role for immense stand alone value but his injury contingent upside is astronomical…also as we get closer to the fantasy playoffs (you may have heard this before) the Titans have a solid playoff schedule for running backs and play Houston twice, which has been pretty decent for fantasy at times.

Keaton Mitchell (23.3% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 25-50%) now has 14 touches for 200yds and 2 TDs in 2 games, seems completely sustainable right? There is no denying the rookie is fast and explosive, now ranking 1st in YPA (14.3), !st in Y/RR (4.11) and 1st in PFF elusiveness score (700.0) but it is difficult to trust an RB in a 3 way RBBC. The latest blurbs from Harbaugh sound promising as he stated the rookie should have been more involved in the game. I expect this increased involvement will continue to be at the expense of Justice Hill, and would be a much easier start in a 2 man backfield. Mitchell is one of the best upside waiver options available that I want on my roster heading into playoffs. The matchup next week is very tantalizing as well against the Bengals who just allowed Devin Singletary to have the most explosive 10+ yard runs in week 10.

Ty Chandler (2.8% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 25-50%) was given a big increase in opportunities in the first half of the game week 10, splitting touches with Alexander Mattison. Chandler also was the only RB given a touch inside the 5 yd line in which he scored a TD. Alexander Mattison left with a concussion late in the game, and we saw Chandler continue to dominate snaps, in which Kene Nwangwu only then get touches (3), in relief for Chandler. Mattison will likely miss the game making Chandler the primary back with only Nwangwu and Myles Gaskin (recently signed back to practice squad) competing for touches next week against the Broncos that are ranked as the best DvP matchup for RBs and have given up an average of 33.6 fantasy points (the most to the position). Chandler now has a big opportunity to prove himself in this offense who have been searching for an answer at the RB position.

Josh Downs (49.1% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 15-25%) was questionable on the week with a knee injury and played on limited only running 43% routes during the game. Downs still showed up to help on offense seeing a 34% WOPR and made a crucial play on third down. Downs is not available in most competitive leagues and I was surprised to see him make the cut here, if he is available he deserves a sizable bid and is a clear focal point of this offense.

Brandin Cooks (49.1% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 15-25%) saw a season high 23% target share and elite 40%TPPR, ranking WR3 for the week with 33 PPR points. I want to add Cooks where available as the Cowboys have been leaning more on the passing game (aka not Tony Pollard) and Cooks has the speed and ability to break off big plays if he can continue to develop an improved rapport with Dak Prescott. Speaking of Prescott, he is playing like the type of QB whose pass catchers we want to target for fantasy, with a Big Time Throw Rate of 6.6% (2nd highest) and a 70.7% completion rate that is also 2nd best.

Demario Douglas (22.2% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 15-25%) was questionable coming into the week with an ankle injury, but managed to put up a his biggest game this year with 6 catches for 84 yards. Douglas saw season high usage running 85% of routes and seeing 36% of team targets. The Patriots offense continues to have big questions at quarterback but Douglas will continue to be the top receiver on the team with a consistent floor that is good enough to be WR3/ flex option and should not be left on the waiver wire.

Noah Brown (27% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 10-20%) had his second 150+ yard performance in two weeks, posting overall WR3 and WR6 finishes in PPR scoring. I admit to being a bit skeptical after the first week and thought there was a possibility we would see Robert Woods play over Noah Brown upon his return this week, but Brown ran 80% of routes playing comfortably ahead of Woods 63% of routes and saw 21% of team targets. Keep an eye on Nico Collin’s status the receiving room could get more crowded when Nico Collins returns, and push Brown into a rotational split with Woods. It remains possible Woods saw less playing time because they were easing him back into the offense coming off an injury as well.

Quentin Johnston (33.2% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 10-20%) continues to play a full time role and ran 85% of routes. He only saw a modest 10% of team targets in a game where Keenan Allen left for a bit and Gerald Everett missed time, but did find the end zone for his first career TD. Johnston remains hard to start, but is a must stash given the full time role and opportunity for breakout if the first round draft pick can begin to put it all together.

Rashid Shaheed (27.5% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 10-20%) saw an increase in targets (9) where he only has 3 targets in each of the last two games after Michael Thomas left the game with a knee injury. Shaheed has been a difficult player for managed leagues all season because he sees so few targets, but is a big play threat who connects on deep passes. It is sounding likely Thomas misses some time with this knee injury making Shaheed a priority add here where he can consistently earn more volume to go along with efficiency and big play upside.

Rico Dowdle (3.8% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 3-8%) saw extended playtime in this week’s blowout game with 11 rushes 79 yds, and was one of the many lucky Cowboy players to get a TD (basically everyone got a TD not named Tony Pollard). This was season high usage for Dowdle, who could feasibly continue to a bigger role given Tony Pollard’s efficiency struggles this season where he was given a 65.8 PFF run grade (47th) and averaging under 4YPA on the season. Combine this chance for an increased role with injury contingency upside and there is no reason not to stash Dowdle on rosters where available heading into the home stretch of the fantasy season.

Khalil Shakir (8.5% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 3-8%) continued to see an increased role Monday night without Dawson Knox running a route on 70% of drop backs, but only saw 2 targets, his least since week 6. This was by far not one of the Bills best games, so I am willing to overlook the targets as long as role remains in tact in which Shakir has established himself firmly as the WR3 on the offense and hope better days are ahead.

Michael Wilson (6.6% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 3-8%) had a quiet day in the box score for Kyler Murray’s return with 3 catches for 34yds, but was ruled barely short of a TD. Wilson ran the second most routes 92% of the wide receivers, his most on the season, and remains a big play threat with a team high 14.8 aDOT average this season and Kyler is a proficient deep ball passer. Wilson is the type of roster depth I am looking to secure as he has flashed a bit and now with Kyler throwing the rock we could see the team continue to improve on offense giving Wilson untapped upside at the position.

Trenton Irwin (4.3% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 3-8%) ran 81% of routes and saw 10% of team targets which he tuned into 2 catches for 54yds and 1 TD. Irwin was the primary replacement for Tee Higgins who appears unlikely to start Thursday as well and remains an option for teams who need a spot start at the WR position and is a good handcuff to keep on roster.

Luke Musgrave (17% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 1-5%) had a nice week 10 performance catching 2 balls for 64yds. Musgrave ran 74% of routes week 10, and with an 18.5 aDOT is one of the few TEs with big play upside.

Michael Mayer (3.3% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 1-5%) ran 68.99% of routes, saw a 19% target share in week 10 and scored his first NFL TD on Sunday night. Mayer is flashing talent and is a solid stash for these last couple weeks heading into playoffs.

Drops

Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, Cam Akers, Miles Sanders, Jeff Wilson, Roschon Johnson, Dalvin Cook, Justice Hill, Tank Bigsby, Miles Sanders, Zack Moss, KJ Osbourn, Josh Palmer, Treylon Burks, Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, Michael Thomas, Darren Waller, Irv Smith