Welcome to Week 7

The fantasy Gods ignored my pleas for no more injuries last week and instead took more of the good guys. The biggest problem for fantasy managers heading into this week is the lack of clarity around most of these situations. Three of our favorite teams for Running Back fantasy production (Lions, Rams, and 49ers) now have waiver adds that are sure to be expensive, but questions surrounding the order of the players in the backfield and severity of injury to the starters and how much time (if any) they actually miss. This leads to question are they worth it or is that shiny new toy essentially an overpriced stash that may never play.

First a look at Week 6

Week 6 waiver wins

When I say “wins” it is in reference to player(s) won on the waiver wire, not a performance evaluation. Because I am releasing this article after the conclusion of week 6 many things in hindsight may not be a win after all. I include this section not for bragging rights or victory laps, but rather to keep myself accountable and demonstrate that I am in fact bidding on many of the players I am writing about (for better and worse).

Several of the top options were not available or ones I was willing to pay for given the teams’ individual roster. I included the prices I saw these players go for in leagues I am in.

Jeff Wilson (none)

Other leagues price range won $367-$741

D’Onte Foreman (none)

Other leagues price range won $157-$362

KJ Osborn

Other leagues price range won $274-$517

Emari Demercado

Winning bid $332, other leagues went in range $341-$442

Justice Hill

Winning bid $253

Keaontay Ingram (3 shares)

Winning bid $54, $32, $32, other leagues price range won $57-$275

Chris Brooks (7 shares)

Winning bids $1, $1, $3, $11, $11, $11, $22, other leagues went in range $1-$22

Salvon Ahmed (3 shares)

Winning bids $3, $3, $1, other leagues went in range $1-$137

Pierre Strong

Winning bid $1, other leagues went in range $1-$21

Trenton Irwin

Winning bid $1, Other leagues went in range $13-$26

Dawson Knox

Winning bid $32, other league went $125

Michael Mayer

Winning bid $1, other leagues went in range $29-$55

Gardner Minshew

Winning bid $7, other league went $1

Kyler Murray

Winning bid $17

Geno Smith

Winning bid $52

Falcons Team Defense (3 shares)

Winning bid $1, $1, $1, other leagues went in range $1-$13

Raiders Team Defense (2 shares)

Winning bid $1, $7, other leagues went in range $2-$14

Vikings Team Defense

Winning bid $1

Chargers Team Kicker

Winning bid $1

Week 6 Standings

Here is a look at how the Ship Chasing and my other teams are performing so far, as you can see some are much better than others. There is still a lot of football, and many of the teams are built to become stronger as the season comes on (ie zero RB and rookies).

Note for FFPC leagues this was an “all play week” where the top 6 teams in every league are awarded a win and the bottom 6 teams a loss. This is done so that every team only has 1 H2H matchup during the regular season.

NFFC Prime Time

Buckeye Boomers (4-2) 1st Place 924.15 pts

The Boomers are running red hot in spite of everything… yes, you really dropped Bateman for Trenton Irwin LMAO. I pushed for Kendrick Bourne in the flex over Jonathan Mingo, which was the right call (phew). Bijan Robinson and Davante Adams delivered disjappointmenting days again while Breece Hall had another week even against a tough Eagles secondary.

Ship Taeking (3-3) 5th Place 855.20 pts

Davis Mattek may have had a rough day in the DFS cash streets, but this team slaughtered the competition to add another win here (even after losing Devon Achane). This alphas only team is straight fire right now… Copper Kupp, D’Andre Swift, Breece Hall, and at long last Kyle Pitts!

Ship Chasing (2-4) 7th Place 869.75 pts

This losing thing is really starting to suck here, I don’t like to make excuses but there are times in fantasy where luck just is not on your side. This team lost by less than 5 points and still scored the 2nd most points in the league this week! Keeping the faith here as this team is legit strong with a Lamar/Andrews stack, Tyfreak, Breece Hall and D’Andre Swift… the only disappointments were Tee Higgins, Tutu Atwell, and lady luck.

Waiver Chasing (4-2) 3rd Place 789.70 pts

My team is making a mid season rally and books a much needed win for week 6. Similarly to most our teams we had the RB power duo of Breece Hall and D’Andre Swift, Garrett Wilson, and Travis Kelce. If Deebo Samuel and Jahmyr Gibbs can return healthy this week I will be feeling really good.

NFFC Super 12 Team

Shark Jumping (3-3) 4th Place 851.85 pts

The loss this week hurt. A CMC oblique injury keeps things uncertain coupled with the Chargers not increasing Quentin Johnston’s role after the bye and topped off with big drop from DeVonta Smith really sucks! Time to brush it off and get to work.

FFPC Main Event

Chasin’ Go Bills (4-2) 1st Place 957.55 pts

This team is back on top where it belongs, scoring the most points in their league this week. Scoring is pretty easy with Raheem Mostert, Cooper Kupp, Amon Ra-St. Brown, and Keenan Allen. I’ll say it again louder for the people in back…this team FUCKS!

SC (Mini Episodes) (3-3) 6th Place 845 pts

This team barely missed being in the top 6 this week continuing to ride or die along with the 49ers… who in fact lost to the Browns.

Stat Chasing (4-2) 5th Place 778.15 pts

This was a close one for the team and they held onto the win thanks to 2 field goals Monday night from my beloved Cowboys. I admit I had my doubts when I realized we were starting Salvon Ahmed and Justice Hill at RB.

April/Cranking Purple (3-3) 9th Place 726.05 pts

Poor April, this just wasn’t our week for this one. Fantasy points overall were on the low side this week and this team managed to start almost every bust there was… DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins, DeAndre Hopkins, and Tutu Atwell…ouch!

Slo Bros (3-3) 4th Place 854.40 pts

The Slo Bros had a very strong week despite choosing the wrong flex option (my fault). Wan’Dale Robinson was the answer and on every team’s bench this week. I thought waiver darling Emari Demercado would perform better than he did (at least he played the most snaps) and I was right that Jahan Dotson was not the correct choice, but the team won in the end.

StephWuGee (3-3) 7th Place 789.60 pts

We had a great week in the all play, scoring the second most points, despite the league rankings not reflecting that outcome. TE is a weak point here as we had to decide between Chig Okonkwo and David Njoku…yuck. The other big let down was DeVonta Smith, which was frustrating having several legitimate WR options on this team.

FFPC FantasyPros Championship

Ball Knower (2-4) 10th Place 744.90 pts

The good thing about big stacks is you only need to get one thing right, the bad thing about big stacks is you only need to get one thing wrong to ruin your day. This team features a Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins stack, I will let you draw your own conclusions on this one.

Super Shorty (0-6) 12th Place 717.15 pts

This team makes me question why I thought it was a good idea to share my team’s performances every week. I have no words … losing sucks.

Scott Fish Bowl 13

Stephmiller40 (12-0) 1st Place 1524.42

My Scott Fishbowl team remains undefeated, I dropped one spot in overall standings to 6th place overall (less than a point). I did lose David Montgomery and Kyren Williams so hopefully I can work some magic and continue my epic run.

Week 7 Waiver Priorities for FFPC/NFFC

Below are all the players I like for Week 7 for FFPC and NFFC leagues. I break down all players into tiers with FAAB suggestions, followed by analysis, and a list of players to consider dropping. These tiers can be used for deeper leagues as well as a good guide for players worth targeting on waivers. If you play in home leagues most top tier players are still good bets, but it is unnecessary to dig deep into lower tiers as there are better players at the position likely available on your waivers. All stats and data for this article are pulled from Fantasy Life, PFF, Ben Gretch of Stealing Signals, and ETR defense v position FPOE chart and PROE.

Tier 1

Jordan Mason, Michael Mayer

Suggested FAAB 20-40%

Jordan Mason is a priority pickup after Christian McCaffrey suffered an oblique injury last game, it remains uncertain how serious the injury is and if the star RB will miss any time, making this a very pricey option that may not materialize. On top of the injury uncertainty the exact pecking order for Jordan Mason and Elijah Mitchell also remains unclear as does WR Deebo Samuels status, as he could mix into the back field as well if healthy. Earlier in the season Mitchell was clear backup but suffered a knee injury which kept him out a couple games prior. Mitchell appeared to have regained his role as primary backup more than doubling Mason’s snaps early in the game, however after the injury Mason took the majority of the snaps (15 to 2). Mason was also the more productive back turning in 5 rushes for 22 yds and a TD, while Mitchell lost yards on his 2 carries. Mitchell could still be recovering from his injury and we have good sample of Mitchell excelling in the back up role, so I don’t know if Mason did enough this one game to play over him when healthy. I recommend picking up whichever back is available in your league (or both) because this remains one of the most valuable backfields in fantasy and you do not want to miss out on this opportunity… but beware you could end up paying a premium for a guy who never starts.

Michael Mayer was arguably the top TE prospect in a talented TE class this year and many fantasy managers had high hopes based on his talent profile. I wrote Mayer up last week as a stash after he ran a season high 49% routes and saw 25% WOPR. Fast forward to week 6 and we saw Mayer run 67% of routes, and get 6 targets for 75 yards. Mayer accounted for 21% of team target share and had an elite 3.00 YPRR the past two weeks. This usage and talent combination make Mayer a priority add at fantasy’s least desirable position especially in FFPC, which people may forget is TEP.

Tier 2

Zach Evans, Craig Reynolds, Trey McBride

Suggested FAAB 5-15%

Zach Evans feels a bit like fools gold this week as many mangers are likely to bid top dollar in hopes of landing the lead RB for the Rams for what is likely a week or two at most. Kyren Williams suffered an in game ankle sprain and the injury is said to be minor, but Williams is likely to miss at least one game and backup RB Ronnie Rivers was placed on IR with a more severe knee injury tearing his PCL. While Evans was the RB3 this past week the Rams have been busy signing veterans, Darrell Henderson was signed and said to start on the practice squad, while newly signed Myles Gaskin and Rams practice squad vet Royce Freeman will join the active roster. Gretch notes in Stealing Signals that McVay has often deferred to veteran talent in situations such as these and their unwillingness to use the rookie even after cutting Cam Akers could be a sign he just is not ready. It is highly possible this first week we see Royce Freeman get the majority of the work having been with the team the longest, and we have no reason to think that Kyren will miss extended time as it stands. I do like the rookie, there is just a lot we don’t know.

Update: News broke right after publication where Kyren Williams is likely to miss multiple games with the injury. I am now recommending that Zach Evans join the tier 1 and could have more upside than initially believed, however there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the situation.

Craig Reynolds exact tier and priority are dependent on the injury situations to the other Lion RBs. David Montgomery left the game with a rib cartilage injury, and according to Dan Campbell “will miss some time.” I believe Montgomery misses at least this week and most likely and an additional game given the Lions have a week 9 bye. The second injury situation to monitor is rookie Jahmyr Gibbs who has missed two straight games with a hamstring injury, but sounds likely to return this week. We have seen this split between Reynolds and Gibbs earlier in the season before where Gibbs played on 59% of snaps and 57% of team rushing and Reynolds played on 30% of snaps with 13% team rushing share. Zonovan Knight also mixed into that game but had a season ending shoulder injury, now Devine Ozigbo is likely to take over that role after being called up from practice squad. If both Montgomery and Gibbs miss the game Reynolds would be a huge priority, however my expectation is that Gibbs returns, and assuming is not limited see similar role as week 3, making him a viable flex option and stash.

Trey McBride use finally seems to be on the rise in the Cardinals offense while Zach Ertz usage is on a downward trend over the last 2 weeks. McBride saw a season high 48% of routes coinciding with a season low for Ertz of 52%. McBride is an interesting add at the TE position that could have some upside, especially if Kyler Murray returns. I like stashing McBride in TEP especially, if you miss out on Mayer this week.

Tier 3

Royce Freeman, Latavius Murray, Devin Singletary, Kareem Hunt

Suggested FAAB 3-5%

Royce Freeman was announced by Adam Schefter to be signed to the active roster in addition to new commer Myles Gaskin, while the newly signed old faithful RB Darrell Henderson will start on the practice squad. Freeman could operate as lead back after Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers suffered injuries and will almost certainly miss the game. I like Freeman as a cheaper pickup here that could be highly valuable if you are in need of a possible one week starter given that he is the lone veteran back who has been on the offense.

Latavius Murray is a big priority after Damien Harris suffered a scary neck injury and was taken to the hospital. Reports on Harris are favorable, and there are even rumblings of hope that he could play again this year (thank goodness). Josh Allen also suffered a shoulder injury and is currently day to day. The Bills have vowed to use Allen less this season as a goal line rusher and this new injury could increase this role for Murray who saw 3 goal line touches and 5 HVTs week 6 while James Cook saw none. Murray also saw a season high 51% of snaps and 44% of rush attempts in week 6. It appears weather we like it or not, Murray (like Adam Thielen), continues to prove that age is just a number.

Devin Singletary took over the Houston backfield last week playing 52% of snaps while Dameon Pierce played 35% of snaps and saw 8% of targets while Pierce saw none. Singletary was also the RB the team relied on in the 4th quarter to seal the win. Pierce has been inefficient this season averaging 2.6 YPC, opening the door for Singletary who has 4.8 YPC to get more opportunities. The Texans have a bye this week so picking up Singletary won’t help if you are desperate this week but is one of the better long term waiver wire options at the running back position if you believe he can emerge from the buy with the better RB role.

Kareem Hunt actually started this game and played a season high 37% of snaps operating as the short yardage back while Jerome Ford was mostly the third down back. Hunt was the better receiver earning a 70.2 PFF receiving grade (13th best among RBs) and had 24 receiving yards, good for second most on the team with an elite 2Y/RR compared to Fords 0.54 Y/RR. Hunt’s role could be greater than initially anticipated making him a solid add and possible future starter.

Tier 4

Curtis Samuel, Darius Slayton, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Darrell Henderson

Suggested FAAB 1-3%

Curtis Samuel is becoming one of Howells favorite targets, and it is evident that Commanders are scheming looks in the red zone as Samuel has scored 3TDs in 3 weeks. Samuel has the second most targets at the receiver position over the last 2 weeks (15% and 18%) target share, while Jahan Dotson in now running mostly wind sprints with (9% and 5%) target share.

Darius Slayton is an option if you are weak at the wide receiver position because of injuries or bye weeks. While no Giant receivers feel great right now Slayton did see his best game with 4 catches for 69 yards. It remains to be seen who starts for the Giants at QB this week, but Taylor was better at getting the ball to Slayton than Daniel Jones has been.

Ke’Shawn Vaughn continued to play as the Buccaneers RB2 coming off the buy week, while Sean Tucker did not play at all. This was a very difficult matchup and Tampa Bay relied more heavily on the pass. The best thing I can say is it is apparent the Bucs are searching for an answer at the RB position, the problem is both these backs are playing bad. Vaughn is a deep stash prayer he gets enough volume for desperation flex at best I guess.

Darrell Henderson has returned from the grave to resign with the Rams for yet again another season of fantasy fun. Adam Schefter reported that Henderson will start on the practice squad so we do not need to be concerned with him muddying up the waters for this week at least. I don’t mind picking up Henderson as a wait and see stash because when it come to the Rams and McVay… we just don’t know.

Tier 5

Brandon Powell, Trey Palmer, Desmond Ridder, Gardner Minshew

Suggested FAAB <1%

Brandon Powell was the Vikings starting slot receiver week 6 as expected after Justin Jefferson was placed on IR. Powell ran 76% of routes and saw a 13% target share. He is a decent emergency flex option if you need help during bye weeks.

Trey Palmer came out of the bye week and saw an immediate increase in usage tying Godwin for 7 targets (2nd most behind Mike Evans) and had 154 air yards on a 22 aDOT and 51% WOPR (2nd best). The rookie has big play ability that is very appealing, however it may be difficult to know when these opportunities will come unless he can maintain consistent usage in the offense.

Desmond Ridder has been on a passing firestorm posting consecutive 300+ yard passing games and had had his first 300+yd multi TD game in week 6. Over the past 2 weeks Ridder has 90 drop backs, tying him for 2nd most with Joes Burrow. While Ridder has been better in fantasy than real life we have seen him come in as the QB6 in week 5, and QB 4 in week 6 in PPR scoring and is a solid pick up at the position which has been hit hard with injuries and bye weeks.

Gardner Minshew is a viable QB option as news hits that Anthony Richardson is likely to undergo season ending shoulder surgery. The Colts passed at a much higher rate with Minshew at QB and had a +7.4% PROE in week 6 translating to an 80% pass rate, the most on the week. We should expect the Colts to remain a pass first team with Minshew.

Tier 6

Tre Tucker, Tyler Scott, Julio Jones, Damien Williams, Devine Ozigbo, Myles Gaskin

Suggested FAAB <1%

Tre Tucker surpassed Hunter Renfrow as the WR3 in week 6 as trade rumors continue to circulate. Tucker ran 55% of routes and saw 7% target share. Similarly to his Bearcat teammate, Tyler Scott, he has some speed to his game, however, the Raiders offense is one I am unlikely to target heavily for WR depth, especially given the uncertainty at the QB position with Jimmy G lower back injury.

Tyler Scott saw season high usage in week 6 now that Chase Claypool is gone for good. I liked Scott as a prospect as he has good speed and big play making ability mostly because of his YAC ability shown off in college where he had 14 TDs go for 20+ yds. Unfortunately the bears passing offense is not one I look to invest in heavily, and now that QB Justin Fields could miss time with dislocated thumb injury, it is even less appealing. I don’t mind stashing Scott if you have room.

Julio Jones was added to the Eagles wide receiver room this week. Can’t hurt to take a peak right?

Damien Williams came in to ruin waiver darling Emari Demercado chances of getting usage in the run game and saw 30% of the rush work behind starter Keaontay Ingram who got 37%. This backfield is currently a mess with 3 running backs mixing in, making none startable. Williams is a deep in case of emergency stash if desperate.

Devine Ozigbo was called up from the practice squad last week and would operate as the RB2 backup if both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs miss next weeks game. There is also the possibility that Gibbs may return and still be limited or not fully healthy. In either case I don’t mind picking up Ozigbo as a cheap stash in deep leagues just in case there are any setbacks.

Myles Gaskin was signed off the Vikings practice squad to the Rams active roster. If you have room on your bench I have no issue picking up any or multiple rams guys and seeing how these next couple weeks shake out.

Drops

Tony Jones, Damien Harris, Anthony Richardson, Emari Demercado, Trenton Irwin, Matt Breida, Rashaad Penny, Deuce Vaughn, Joshua Kelley, Paris Campbell, Calvin Austin

Week 7 Priority Home League Targets

I wanted to include some players for all you home league heros out there! These players are rostered in <50% of ESPN leagues, I did not include any players from section above, however as mentioned previously most of the early tiers are still good targets. I listed the players in my ranked order instead of breaking into tiers for how I prioritize them and offer FAAB suggestions ranges for each player followed by a list of droppable players.

Roschon Johnson (41.8% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 15-35%) will return this week and will be the starting RB while Khalil Herbert was placed on IR. He should not be available with all the injuries at RB position and bye weeks, make him a priority if given the option

Elijah Mitchell (26.4% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 10-20%) is a priority add this week, read the section on Jordan Mason in top half of the article where I explained how I am thinking about this back field. Both RBs are a priority in all formats this week.

Josh Downs (32.7% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 8-12%) remains one of the top wide receiver priority waiver adds on a pass first offense and now has even more opportunities to work into 2 receiver sets after Alec Pierce suffered a shoulder injury and could miss time.

Rashee Rice (30.4% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 8-12%) has an elite 30.3% target share and his best game with 72 receiving yards, but is still only playing on about 50% of snaps. We did see Rice’s routes run increase back to 50% week 6 after dropping to season low 23% in week 5. Justin Watson suffered an injury this game so that could be one less receiver in the rotation benefiting Rice. If Rice can play closer to full time roll he could easily become an every week starter.

Chuba Hubbard (46% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 8-12%) had the best rushing performance for the panthers this season getting 19 carries for 88 yds and 1 TD, while Miles Sanders missed the game with a shoulder injury. Chuba is a solid starting option for as long as Sanders remains out and could hold onto to starting role when he returns.

Tyjae Spears (25.1% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 8-12%) led the Titans in receiving for week 6 all on one 48yd pass. The already broken Titans offense is in an even worse situation after Ryan Tannehill was injured leaving Malik Willis at QB. It is possible the Titans trade or shut Derick Henry down and try to get the rookie some more opportunities to see what they have, also the Titans are sure to be playing most games from behind.

Sam Howell (19.1% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 1-5%) still leads the league in drop backs (265) despite only throwing 23 times for 157 yds last week. We did see Howell throw for 3TDs week in week 6, his most so far. Howell does continues to lead the league in sacks, taking another 5 in week 6 (I will continue to look to stream defenses again WAS as well). Howell is still QB11 in PPR scoring this season and a great option if you need to pick up a QB after so many injuries occurred on top of bye weeks.

Wan’Dale Robinson (5.2% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 1-5%) had his best game of the season with Tyrod Taylor at QB with 8 catches for 62 yards. Robinson has finally earned the slot role to himself, and took 100% of the snaps in 11 personnel and Paris Campbell saw no offensive snaps this game.

Rashid Shaheed (13.5% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 1-5%) is a big play waiting to happen but difficult to trust on the weekly basis where consistency is also important in managed leagues at the wide receiver position. He had a big game with 6 targets for 82 yards and 1 TD with 142 air yards on a day where Derek Carr put up 522 air yards, the most of any team this season.

Jameson Williams (34.2% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 1-5%) is a bit of a mixed bag. The good is he caught a long TD, the bad his usage dropped dramatically. Williams is a player who we always wanted for that big play ability so I still want to stash and see if he bounces back.

Drops

Dalvin Cook, Matt Breida, Rashaad Penny, Joshua Kelley, Treylon Burks, Juju Smith-Schuster, Calvin Austin, Skyy Moore, Van Jefferson, Chigoziem Okonkwo, Juwan Johnson, Anthony Richardson, Jahan Dotson, David Njoku, Zach Ertz, Emari Demercado, Odell Beckham, Darnell Mooney, Allen Lazard, DJ Chark, Dameon Pierce, Quentin Johnston, Samaje Perine