Welcome to week 8

Hello and welcome back everyone to week 8 where we see some familiar faces on waivers. The backend of our lineups start to become a cycle of churning players and burning money. We have hopes and dreams for the value of a player we have been holding for this moment or we spend big to pick them up, then immediately it is heartbreak as their role is not what we expected. The coach inexplicably splits the work in a new way, someone else is “the guy”, they just are not that good, whatever the reason is, we drop them like their hot.

We have to make a multitude of decisions to make each week and must draw conclusions on small samples of information, it is a constant tug of war between reacting too fast and not fast enough. It can be difficult to sit a week out on waivers or hold guys the entire season on shorter benches that you cannot start. Then there is always a potential shiny new toy, and no one else to cut. We watch that toy bust or not pan out and here we are picking up that stash again or watching the bust go off the week after they are supposed. Now here you are paying top dollar for that player you were just a bit early on and got for a couple dollars.

Well that is part of the game, churning and burning, we all go through it, this week especially, I feel like we have been here before. Many of these players I list only real value is as a bye week flex fill-in, if you are in a pinch and there is no need to pick them up if you are not starting them. The younger players and those with ascending talent and players with big contingent upside are the ones we should stash as we make a late season run and prepare for playoffs. If you have someone you have been holding it is ok to sit out a week on waivers, if a player is listed as a drop you do not have to cut them, do what is best for your team and good luck.

First a look at week 7

Week 7 Waiver Wins

When I say “wins” it is in reference to player(s) won on the waiver wire, not a performance evaluation. Because I am releasing this article after the conclusion of week 6 many things in hindsight may not be a win after all. I include this section not for bragging rights or victory laps, but rather to keep myself accountable and demonstrate that I am in fact bidding on many of the players I am writing about (for better and worse).

Several of the top options were not available or ones I was willing to pay for given the teams’ individual roster. I included the prices I saw these players go for in leagues I am in.

Zach Evans (no shares)

Other leagues price range won $188-$501

Jordan Mason (No shares)

Other leagues price range won $252-$272

Craig Reynolds (no shares)

Other leagues price range won $5-$287

Latavius Murray (no shares)

Other leagues price range won $78-$116

Devin Singletary (no shares)

Other leagues price range won $68-$133

Michael Mayer (3 shares)

Winning bids $423, $352, $382, other leagues won $23-$288

Trey McBride (2 shares)

Winning bids $1, $12, other leagues price range $24-$78

Royce Freeman (2 shares)

Winning bid $1, $1, other leagues price range $7-$68

Darrell Henderson (2 shares)

Winning bid $5, $53 other leagues price range won $14-$174

Myles Gaskin (9 shares)

Winning bids $26, $42, $43, $45, $53, $58, $78, $86, $86, other leagues price range won $16-$59

Kyler Murray (2 shares)

Winning bid $1, $181, other leagues price range $6-$313

Khalil Herbert

Winning bid $102

Darrynton Evans

Winning bid $1, other leagues price range $3-$12

DeeJay Dallas

Winning bid $1

Leonard Fournette (2 shares)

Winning bids $1, $1, other leagues price range $1-$71

Browns Kicker (4 shares)

Winning bids $1, $1, $1, $1, other leagues price range won $5-$6

New Orleans Kicker

Winning bids $1, other league went price range $1-$21

Washington Defense

Winning bid $1, other league went price range $1-$50

Las Vegas Defense (2 shares)

Winning bids $1, $1, other league went $21

Tampa Bay Defense

Winning bid $2, other leagues went price range $8-$29

Indianapolis Defense

Winning bid $1

Week 7 Standings

Here is a look at how the Ship Chasing and my other teams are performing so far, as you can see some are much better than others. We are getting a little past the half way point of the regular football season, I am hoping to see many of the teams come on stronger (ie zero RB and rookies).

NFFC Prime Time

Buckeye Boomers (4-3) 1st Place 1048.70 pts

The Boomers lost this week, but remain in 1st Place. The biggest factor was Bijan Robinson’s illness not being known ahead of time.

Ship Taeking (3-4) 4th Place 973.50 pts

This team took a hard loss after most if the stars were on byes and Cooper Kupp put up his first dud of the season.

Ship Chasing (3-4) 3rd Place 1037 pts

Finally this team got a huge win that it rightfully deserves. Lamar and Mark Andrews put up lot of points in this one, while Tyreek Hill and Terry McLaurin were solid.

Waiver Chasing (5-2) 6th Place 927.85 pts

My team won its matchup thanks to some nice rookie performances from Jahmyr Gibbs and Jaxon Smith-Njigba and an old favorite Travis Kelce. This team has a great record but needs to put up a few more points to climb up the standings.

NFFC Super 12 Team

Shark Jumping (4-3) 2nd Place 1017.85 pts

This team also needs to thank Jahmyr Gibbs for its win (see Leone rookies are fun too) and having no fear starting CMC after he was questionable for the week. Another big performance boost was the Brown’s team kicker who put up a huge week with 24 points, we won 4 shares of this kicker on waivers last week!

FFPC Main Event

Chasin’ Go Bills (5-2) 1st Place 1077.50 pts

Our top performing team snuck away with the win after several studs put up duds. Sun God and Browns kicker combo saved the day.

SC (mini Episodes) (4-3) 3rd Place 999.90 pts

This team had a nice win thanks to GAM AJB and celebrated the rookie coming out party for Jordan Addison.

Stat Chasing (5-2) 3rd Place 949.65 pts

Who needs RBs when you have Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce in TEP?! Not these boys…oh I almost forgot to mention they are ahead of those dirty bois now.

April/Cranking Purple (3-4) 10th Place 846.20 pts

April took a hard loss, despite putting up a good fight. Gardner Minshew ceiling, Browns kicker, and JSN breakout was not quite enough to overcome to the rest of the WR and RB flops.

Slo Bros (3-4) 6th Place 955.50 pts

The week 7 bye hit this team hard. We made some poor decisions in our efforts to fix RB. I look forward to bouncing back this week.

StephWuGee (4-3) 6th Place 945.05pts

My main event team had a nice win this week thanks to Jordan Addison coming out party and Sun God. I fought hard to start Addison despite a tough matchup against the 49ers. Unfortunately we sat Jakobi Meyers and not DeVonta Smith or Keenan Allen.

FFPC FantasyPros Championship

Ball Knower (2-5) 11th Place 824.55 pts

You don’t have to know ball to see that when your top 3 players are on the same team and on bye that it might be a difficult week. This team had a poor run out even the kicker and defense were total nothings.

Super Shorty (1-6) 12th Place 869.49 pts

My first win of the season, yay…. I don’t think it matters at this point lol. Nice to see the Chiefs are capable of scoring points still.

Scott Fish Bowl 13

Stephmiller40 (14-0) 1st Place 1753.31

I am still undefeated and in 6th place overall and clenched a playoff spot! This week was a very tough matchup that came down to the wire against another undefeated team. I lost both Kyren Williams and David Montgomery so it took some waiver magic.

Week 8 Waiver Priorities for FFPC/NFFC

Below are all the players I like for Week 7 for FFPC and NFFC leagues. I break down all players into tiers with FAAB suggestions, followed by analysis, and a list of players to consider dropping. These tiers can be used for deeper leagues as well as a good guide for players worth targeting on waivers. If you play in home leagues most top tier players are still good bets, but it is unnecessary to dig deep into lower tiers as there are better players at the position likely available on your waivers. All stats and data for this article are pulled from Fantasy Life, PFF, Ben Gretch of Stealing Signals, and ETR defense v position FPOE chart and PROE.

Tier 1

Pierre Strong, Emari Demercado

Suggested FAAB 10-25%

Pierre Strong is the top waiver add of the week in high stakes after Jerome Ford suffered an ankle injury in the Week 7 game and is believed to miss the next 1-2 weeks with a “low grade high ankle sprain.” Strong saw a higher percentage of the team’s rush share and ran more routes in week 7 than Kareem Hunt, however Hunt was questionable all week leading up to the game. I do think it is likely to be a split backfield if Ford misses time with Hunt playing the RB1 role, however I don’t expect Hunt to be a workhorse and Pierre should get opportunities and has some explosive ability that could lead to some big plays. There is enough ambiguity in this situation and with the injury to make Pierre an intriguing add.

Emari Demercado is another waiver darling messing with fantasy managers’ minds. Demercado was a priority waiver add after having a clear role, and then put up a dud in week 6 where he played the most snaps, but was not used on early downs and we saw Ingram work as the primary rusher with Damien Williams mixing in. Many managers gave up too quickly (me included) only to see Demercado take over Ingram’s work (who only played on special teams) and maintained his original pass role in week 7. Conner remains on IR for at least 2 more weeks, making Demercado an appealing waiver add… again (if we can trust Cardinals).

Tier 2

Royce Freeman, Jalin Hyatt, Chris Rodriguez, Demario Douglas

Suggested FAAB 5-10%

Royce Freeman is worth a pickup as Kyren Williams is on IR and it is possible he still has value splitting work with Darrell Henderson. Freeman should split time with Henderson going forward as he played very well in the run game earning an 80.3 PFF run grade (3rd best) in week 7 and was efficient with 5.5 YPA. I expect Freeman and Henderson to remain the two backs going forward, it remains to be seen what happens when Kyren Williams returns.

Jalin Hyatt had 2 big catches over 25 yds this week totaling 168 air yards, the most in week 7. Hyatt is out snapping Isaiah Hodgins for the second week, as the two have been splitting the outside receiver role opposite Darius Slayton. Hyatt led wide receivers in targets last week with 19% share, while Slayton saw the lowest target share of the three outside receivers, despite running the most routes. Hyatt is a premium high upside stash and hope his role continues to grow even when Daniel Jones returns.

Chris Rodriguez is making his mark in the Commander offense and is now splitting rush work with Brian Robinson. In week 7 those opportunities were throughout the game, not just when it was out of hand. Robinson has not been very efficient averaging less than 3.2YPC the last four games, opening up the chance the Commanders continue to give the rookie more work.

Demario Douglas is a 6th round rookie who saw an increase in play opportunity because of Juju Smith-Schuster absence, running 76% routes and seeing 6 targets for a 26%TPPR. This offense is lacking in playmakers behind Kendrick Bourne so the rookie could easily earn more time and is a viable upside stash option.

Tier 3

Tucker Kraft, Connor Heyward, Donald Parham, Cade Otton

Suggested FAAB 3-5%

Tucker Kraft is the other rookie TE drafted by Green Bay and took over in the 4th quarter after Luke Musgrave injured his ankle, playing 15 of 17 offensive snaps. Kraft could see an increase in his role if Luke Musgrave misses time and is viable pickup in TEP leagues contingent on Musgrave’s health.

Connor Heyward is the TE to own in Pittsburgh as Pat Freiermuth was placed back on IR and continues to miss time. Heyward ran 96% of routes to Darnell Washington 21% coming off the bye week and had 13% team target share, while Washington saw no targets.

Donald Parham is an add in TEP leagues after Gerald Everett groin injury caused him to leave the game. The two TEs have been splitting time, but Parham is a preferred red zone target and would see an increase in routes if Everett misses time making him a viable fantasy option.

Cade Otton has an 83% route participation on average for the season and saw his highest target share 15% since week 2. I like adding Otton in TEP leagues where I need help at TE position.

Tier 4

Zamir White, Rico Dowdle, Chase Edmonds, Cordarrelle Patterson

Suggested FAAB 1-3%

Zamir White filled in for Josh Jacobs in the third quarter after Jacobs limped off the field and saw 3 targets for 26 yards. Zamir is a high upside contingency stash and increasingly valuable if Jacob’s misses time or is limited.

Rico Dowdle remains one of the most valuable contingency stashes in the league. He can fill-in as an emergency flex option, and has looked explosive on his opportunities. Dallas continues to generate the most HVT per game this season making it one of the most valuable back fields in the NFL.

Chase Edmonds is set to be activated off IR. The Buccaneers continue to search for a viable RB2 option in their offense, the door is wide open given the inefficiency of all the RBs before him. Edmonds is my preferred way to play the backfield at this point as it is very difficult to make a case for KeShawn Vaughn who managed a terrible 1.8 YPA in week 7 and saw his lowest rush share since assuming the RB2 role coming off the bye week.

Cordarrelle Patterson was the RB2 during week 7 while Bijan Robinson suffered a sudden illness and was much more more efficient with 5.6 YPC in week 7 than Tyler Allgeier 2.8 YPC. This gap could lead to more opportunity making Patterson a viable stash and flex emergency option if Robinson’s illness persists or Arthur Smith continues down his path as “basically the worst head coach for fantasy football we have ever had.” Go read the intro to Ben Gretch’s Stealing Signals for more insight into the greatness that is Arthur Smith.

Tier 5

Brandon Powell, Jauan Jennings, Jake Bobo, Julio Jones, Leonard Fournette

Suggested FAAB <1%

Brandon Powell is operating as the Vikings starting slot receiver while Justin Jefferson remains on IR. He is an option if you are desperate for a wide receiver.

Jauan Jennings ran 79% of routes and had 26% target share in week 7 when Deebo Samuel missed with injury. Jennings is a flex option if Deebo continues to miss time.

Jake Bobo is Seattles other rookie wide receiver that saw an increase in playtime when DK Metcalf missed week 7 with an injury and played the Metcalf role. Bobo ran 83% of routes, lead the wide receivers in snaps, and produced a near identical stat line (4-61-1) to Jaxon Smith-Njiba (4-63-1). Bobo is a viable stash in case Metcalf continues to miss time or is limited.

Julio Jones made his Eagles debut and took most snaps from the outside, he had 1 reception for 3 yards. He is vaguely interesting as a speculative add, but I expect the offense to remain concentrated.

Leonard Fournette made an announcement that he is signing somewhere this week… the world waits for “play off Lenny” to emerge. He is worth a cheap add just in case.

Tier 6

Tyler Scott, Ray-Ray McCloud, Rashaad Penny, Stone Smart, Jelani Woods

Suggested FAAB <1%

Tyler Scott saw season high usage running 63% of routes in week 6 and followed that up in week 7 running 67%. I liked Scott as a prospect as he has good speed and big play making ability mostly because of his YAC ability shown off in college where he had 14 TDs go for 20+ yds. I continue to like Scott as a very deep stash option.

Ray-Ray McCloud ran 42% of routes and had 11% target share while Deebo missed with injury. McCloud earned targets when he was on the field and saw a deeper 12.33 aDOT than the other receivers making him a viable option if Deebo misses more time.

Rashaad Penny is not seeing anything at this point, however, if you need a deep RB stash Penny is a great option. He plays on a great offense and an injury ahead of him could greatly change his trajectory and provide value.

Stone Smart seemed to be the primary replacement for Gerald Everett in week 7, as Darnold Parham was playing through his own injury. Smart could be a very deep option if both other TEs miss time or are limited.

Jelani Woods is eligible to return from IR, its possible he takes over as the Colt’s receiving TE role when healthy. I don’t hate the idea of stashing him in TEP leagues if you are desperate at the position for cheap.

Drops

Donovan Peoples-Jones, Damien Harris, Chris Brooks, Paris Campbell, Calvin Austin, Craig Reynolds, Deshaun Watson, Tyquan Thornton, Isaiah Hodgins, Trent Irwin, Allen Robinson, Zach Evans, Myles Gaskin