Welcome to Week 13

Congratulations to everyone who advanced to the league finals in FFPC, as the regular season is behind us as and the league championships begin Week 13. NFFC leagues still play until week 14 of the regular season, so there is still time for a final hail mary. It is bitter sweet being excited for the playoffs and already reminiscing on how fast the season has flown by. I continue dreaming of what could have been for some teams that were decimated by injuries to their early round picks that were ultimately too much to recover from and what the future holds for some loaded teams entering the playoff gauntlet. The wire is looking bare it’s time to make sure you have this giant week 13 bye week covered, backups rostered at the onsie positions (defense and kickers too), then look to handcuff studs if possible and load up on high upside contingent options to make that final push.

First a Look at Week 12

Week 12 Waiver Wire Wins

When I say “wins” it is in reference to player(s) won on the waiver wire, not a performance evaluation. Because I am releasing this article after the conclusion of week 11 many things in hindsight may not be a win after all. I include this section not for bragging rights or victory laps, but rather to keep myself accountable and demonstrate that I am in fact bidding on many of the players I am writing about (for better and worse).

Isaiah Likely

Winning Bid $106

Tucker Kraft (5 shares)

Winning Bid $201, $111, $9, $11, $4

Justin Watson

Winning Bid $53

Greg Dortch

Winning Bid $4

A.T. Perry

Winning Bid $101

Jalen Tolbert

Winning Bid $1

Ty Johnson (2 shares)

Winning Bid $4, $1

Chigoziem Okonokwo

Winning Bid $1

Mike Gesicki (2 shares)

Winning Bid $1, $1

New Orleans Defense

Winning Bid $31

Jacksonville Defense

Winning Bid $21

New England Defense

Winning bid $3

Tennessee Defense (3 shares)

Winning Bids $1, $1, $1

Houston Defense

Winning Bid $11

Tampa Bay Defense

Winning Bid $3

Week 12 Standings

NFFC Prime Time

Buckeye Boomers (8-4) 1st Place 1795.90 pts

The Boomers put up a solid win with the whole team pulling their weight across the board. This team is set up for a big post season run and ranks 53rd overall.

Ship Taeking (5-7) 11th Place 1489.90 pts

The Ship has sank and is taeking our hopes and dreams along with it… I bid you farewell.

Ship Chasing (6-6) 4th Place 1720.10 pts

Week 12 was not the best week for the Ship Chasing team, luckily their opponent had an even worse day and the team emerged victorious. This team is only about 5 points away from the 3rd seed, another close battle to the finish.

Waiver Chasing (8-4) 6th Place 1598.65 pts

My team had one of the best week 12 performances of the league, and played one of only two teams that could beat it… matchup variance fell on the wrong side. The team with the best record also lost, so we remain 1 win behind same as before. My team is about 36 pts. behind the third place team in points, with two others in the mix, this will be a very close one to see if we get through to playoffs.

NFFC Super 12 Team

Shark Jumping (8-4) 1st 1755.70 pts

The Sharks are now making a clean sweep leading with the best record and most points. There is a team only five points back breathing down their necks so the team remains vigilant to finish strong here.

NFFC Silver Bullet

Ship Chasing Single Bullet (6-6) 5th Place 1656.05 pts

This team had a rough week where the RBs Charbs and Warren didn’t do great and Cooper Kupp and Kyle Pitts put up duds. With 2 weeks to go in the regular season this team is in a close battle (less than 18 pts) with two other teams for 3rd seed.

FFPC Main Event

Week 12 marked the end of the regular season and Week 13 is the start of the league playoffs. Teams with the #1 and #2 seed automatically qualify for the Championship round in weeks 15-17, while the #3 and #4 seeds need to win this week to stay in contention. We have 5 of our 8 main even teams advancing and let’s just forget about the FantasyPros Championship, all in all that seems pretty darn good!

Chasin’ Go Bills (8-4) #2 Seed 1543.85 pts

SC (Mini Episodes) (7-5) #2 Seed 1773.30 pts

Stat Chasing (5-7) Eliminated 1599.15 pts

April/Cranking Purple (6-6) Eliminated 1558.15 pts

Slo Bros (6-6) Eliminated 1634.45 pts

Chasing Stolen Bananas (8-4) #3 Seed 1698.85 pts

Five Horsemen (9-3) #1 Seed 1574.10 pts

StephWuGee (7-5) #4 Seed 1687.05 pts

FFPC FantasyPros Championship

Ball Knower (6-6) Eliminated 1531 pts

Super Shorty (3-9) Eliminated 1421.60 pts

Scott Fish Bowl 13

Stephmiller40 Rd 1 playoffs 16th Place 520.66 pts

Round 1 of the Playoffs is complete and now I am onto Round 2. Week 13 is going to be challenging with so many players on bye, I hope some of the teams ahead of me are Josh Allen/Lamar teams.

Week 13 Waiver Priorities NFFC/FFPC

Below are all the players I like for Week 13 for FFPC and NFFC leagues. I break down all players into tiers with FAAB suggestions, followed by analysis. No drops list in this one as I think it is becoming very roster dependent, feel free to reach out if you have specific questions. This article is also viable for those of you who play in deeper league formats and dynasty leagues, as I try and go deep into the player pool. All stats and data for this article are pulled from Fantasy Life, PFF, Ben Gretch of Stealing Signals, and ETR defense v position FPOE chart and PROE.

Tier 1

Pat Freiermuth

Suggested FAAB 50-100%

Pat Freiermuth saw a 120 yd receiving game with 11 targets good for a 35% team target share and elite 44% TTPR after a minuscule 5% targets coming off injury the week prior. Freiermuth seemingly was the biggest beneficiary of Matt Canada’s departure and now was the offensive focal point where Kenny Pickett peppered Freiermuth in the middle of the field with targets. If Freiermuth was dropped in you league go get him, he is the premier add in all formats, just want to mention in case he is available.

Tier 2

Curtis Samuel, Greg Dortch, Juwan Johnson, Tucker Kraft, Kenny Pickett, Gardner Minshew, Taysom Hill

Suggested FAAB 5-15%

Curtis Samuel ran his 67% of routes, his most since week 6 and saw 12 targets for 27% of team targets, the most on offense and his highest marks of the season. The Cowboys have a 90.6 PPR pressure grade (2nd best) and forcing Sam Howell to get the ball out quick to avoid the sack leading to a plethora of low aDOT targets for Samuel near the line of scrimmage. I expect a similar dynamic next week against the Dolphins 81.4 graded pass rush (4th best) in which Samuel is heavily targeted again making him a solid week13 bye week fill-in option.

Greg Dortch ran 80% of routes and saw a 20% target share with the return of Zach Pascal, a bullish sign that he has earned a permanent role in the starting offense. Michael Wilson missed again this game so there are questions how the splits will look upon his return. Rondale Moore could be the odd man out as he is running a full complement of routes, but is not earning targets anywhere near Dortch. I am bullish that Dortch could be a viable stash and possible starting option this week if needed, keep an eye on Wilson’s health status.

Juwan Johnson could end up being a big beneficiary of all the injuries to the Saints offense this week. In week 12 Johnson saw 7 targets he parlayed into 4 catches for 45yds. Johnson has seen the most end zone targets since returning from injury and Derek Carr himself told us to draft Johnson for our fantasy teams.

Tucker Kraft ran 87% of routes in week 12 but only saw 2 targets, scoring a TD on one of them. The route running usage was on par from what we have seen from Luke Musgrave this season, but note Josiah Deguara was also out this game and could potentially eat into Kraft’s role when he returns. Kraft will need to demonstrate he has an ability to earn targets before he can be fully trusted, but I am rolling him out in TEP leagues where I need a TE this week as a volume based play.

Kenny Pickett played better last week and it was good to see this offense come alive and put up 400yds of offense after Matt Canada was fired. Pickett looked good here throwing for a season high 278yds and 91.8 PFF passer rating, second highest on the week. Pickett has a pristine matchup this week against the Cardinals who have a 63.3 graded pass rush (27th) likely to keep Kenny squeaky clean for another big game, he is my favorite streaming option for the week.

Gardener Minshew threw for 251 yds and had 1 rushing TD week 12. We saw Gardener Minshew throw the most he has the past 3 weeks finally having WR Josh Downs back to full health. PFF rates the Colts with the best QB rest of the season schedule, making Minshew a solid option down the stretch.

Taysom Hill could be a viable pick-up given all the injuries to the Saints offense. It remains unfortunate that he has a QB designation in high stakes, but you never know and he could get you points if locked out with no other options.

Tier 3

Royce Freeman, D’Ernst Johnson, Samaje Perine, A.T. Perry, Jalin Hyatt, Jaylen Guyton, Cedric Tillman, Devante Parker, Robert Woods, Juju Smith-Schuster

Suggested FAAB 3-10%

Royce Freeman split some rush shares (41%) with Kyren Williams in the first part of the game in week 12 alternating drives. This usage was on par with how Freeman was used with Darrell Henderson and it is possible that we see similar split continue to manage the load on Kyren (who looked fantastic). Freeman is a great add for teams who need some RB production and would be replace Kyren if anything happens to Williams as the Ram cut Darrell Henderson and have shown no interest in giving the rookie Zack Evans any work, however Ronnie Rivers will return soon.

D’Ernest Johnson has secured the RB2 role behind Travis Etienne and saw a 42 yard catch week 12. The Jaguars are limiting Travis Etienne usage to keep him fresh for playoffs as well making Johnson a usable desperation option with massive contingent upside and is one of my top stashes heading into these final weeks and playoffs.

Samaje Perine is playing the RB2 role in the offense after the bye week and had had 26% of snaps here while Jaleel Mclaughlin’s snap share has been declining since week 6 and reached an all-time low at 3%. Perine is cutting into Javonte William’s role a bit and saw 2 RZ touches, scoring a TD on one, and 2 HVTs. Perine is a solid stash and streaming option if needed as his role centers around HVTs. Keep an eye on Javante Williams health status as well, he had a neck injury this game.

A.T. Perry ran 80% of routes and had all the opportunity in the world to step up in this one with Michael Thomas out and Raheed Shaheed leaving with a quad injury at the end of the second quarter but ultimately only saw two targets. Early on Perry gave up on a route that led to a pick 6 so there were talks that the lack of volume was punishment, but the team is out of options likely to be without Michael Thomas, Raheed Shaheed, and Chris Olave in this one.

Jalin Hyatt posted his first 100 yd game of his career while running 70% of routes with a 26% target share. Many of Hyatt’s catches were deep downfield as he is clearly Tommy DeVito’s favorite target. Hyatt could continue to break out down the stretch and is worth the add to see if he can maintain this usage. I would prioritize Hyatt higher if you do not need a player for Week 13.

Jaylen Guyton is playing a full time WR role running 86% of routes thanks to the slew of injuries to the wide receivers. If the rookie Quentin Johnston misses this game Guyton is a streamable emergency option.

Cedric Tillman continues play a full time roll and ran 89% of routes in a game where his also highest target volume at 14% of team share, benefitting from an Amari Cooper rib injury. Tillman is a high upside stash and streamable option if Amari Cooper is ruled out of the game.

Devante Parker returned from injury and immediately saw 81% of routes, the most on the team. If Demario Douglas misses week 13 with concussion Parker would be a viable bye week fill in.

Robert Woods had 2 catches as the offense remained concentrated in week 12, however he saw his routes decrease from 81% to 61% the week prior coinciding with John Metchie getting a usage bump. Noah Brown missed this game as well and I still expect to play ahead of Woods but there is enough uncertainty that I don’t mind stashes Texans and seeing how this wide receiver corps plays out.

Juju Smith-Schuster could play the Pop Douglas role week 13, its gross, this is break glass in case of emergency only one here for me.

Tier 4

Noah Gray, Gerald Everett, Michael Carter, Cordarrelle Patterson, DeeJay Dallas, Patrick Taylor

Suggested FAAB <1-5%

Noah Gray remains an elite handcuff stash that should be a target for all managers, especially TEP formats like FFPC, entering fantasy playoffs to add upside to the TE position.

Gerald Everett returned to action week 12 running 57% of routes and seeing 10% team targets. Everett is far from my favorite player at the position but given the numerous injuries to the Chargers skill players on offense they are reaching desperation mode looking for bodies this week.

Michael Carter has secured the RB2 role in the Cardinal offense as James Conner’s backup playing on 38% of snaps with 29% rush share and ran 39% of routes and had 4 HVTs that all came in garbage time. Carter is a high upside stash that could be another stream candidate in deep leagues.

Cordarrelle Patterson matched Tyler Allgeier with 27% of snaps in this game while running 13% of routes to Allgeier 8%. The Falcons love to run the ball and came out of the bye to post a 38.7% actual pass rate ;(-16.0% PROE) which was the second lowest pass rate by a team this year (Gretch et al., 2023). As gross as it is if you are desperate at RB Patterson could be an option.

DeeJay Dallas played on 13% of snaps close to typical usage but saw a slight bump in rush attempts to 11% while Zach Charbonnet played a bell cow role as expected with Ken Walker out. Dallas the RB2 for as long as Ken Walker remains out.

Patrick Taylor is a viable RB stash in deep leagues that are picked clean on the wire after he played on 48% of snaps to AJ Dillion 52% and saw a 14% rush share. AJ Dillion has been an inefficient player this season averaging 3.4YPA (50th) and now even with the Aaron Jones injury has failed to secure an increase in snap volume, this opens the door for Taylor to earn more work down the stretch.

Tier 5

Julio Jones, Cedric Wilson, Jalen Tolbert, Chase Edmonds, Jamaal Williams, Trayveon Williams

Suggested FAAB <1%

Julio Jones continues to run as the WR3 in the Eagles offense with a 79% route share in this game after a 75% route share week 11. I will note Julio is playing a low aDOT role -0.5aDOT here, and still needs an injury to AJB or Devonta Smith before he is fantasy viable.

Cedrick Wilson is the third receiver in an explosive Miami offense and has injury contingent value should Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle miss time in the fantasy playoffs.

Jalen Tolbert had two receptions for 49 yds on 39% of routes continuing to take work away from Michael Gallup who only saw 1 target this game. Tolbert is being used deep down the field in this one which is something he excelled at in college.

Chase Edmonds continues to run as the clear RB2 in the Tampa Bay offense and behind Rashaad White who was questionable leading up to the game with a knee injury but played without limitations.

Jamaal Williams remains the Saints RB2 behind Kamara playing a minimal roil since Kendre Miller cannot stay healthy. He is an injury contingent stash.

Trayveon Williams did not see any touches in week 12 but remains the clear RB2 behind Joe Mixon. I am less excited by the entire offense now that Joe Burrow is finished for the year as it is hard seeing any of the skill players getting much started.

Tier 6

Greg Dulcich, Durham Smythe, Daniel Bellinger

Suggested FAAB <1%

Greg Dulcich could be activated from IR and become a viable starting TE down the strectch in a Sean Payton scheme that historically features the TE and has yet to find a viable option on the Broncos offense to this point.

Durham Smythe returned to action after a two week hiatus and was immediately thrust back into a voluminous 73% routes run with a familiar 3 targets he has seen in his last 3 games.

Daniel Bellinger continues to be used in a full time roll without Darren Waller but did see his lowest route percentage (70%) and target share (4%) since Waller’s injury in week 8.

Tier 7

Jason Brownlee, Trey Palmer, Keith Kirkwood, Lynn Bowden, Darrynton Evans, Tyquan Thorton

Suggested FAAB <1%

Jason Brownlee ran 100% of routes on Tim Boyle drop backs week 12. This offense is still bad, but Boyle is getting the ball out with short passes.

Trey Palmer continues to play the WR3 role in this offense and is a rookie stash candidate down the stretch.

Keith Kirkwood is another Saints player who saw playing time in week 12, running 28% of routes but seeing 3 targets, the most of the ancillary guys. Given how poorly A.T. Perry played and the numerous injuries Kirkwood could be a desperation pickup here… Im digging deep for ya’ll here.

Lynn Bowden ran 53% of routes in week 12 and the Saints need bodies. They are likely to enter week 13 without Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Raheed Shaheed… last man standing could be worth a stash.

Darrynton Evans was active for this game and played well earlier this season. His explosive profile could fit this Miami rush attack and he is a long shot deep stash if desperate at the position heading into playoffs.

Tyquan Thorton saw a season high 12% target share and Demario Douglas is likely to miss week 13 with a concussion. I would not recommend streaming him or anything, but feel obligated to share this information given my sizable best ball investment.