Welcome to Week 12

I want to start by expressing my gratitude for all of you supporting my work this year, seeing my subscriber base grow is what keeps motivating me to continue to put my writing out there. I am also grateful for the opportunity to work with Pete Overzet, Pat Kerrane, and Ben Gretch who have been nothing short of amazing this entire fantasy football season. This is the final week of the regular FFPC season, then we have the league playoffs followed by the championship. I cannot believe it, Vegas feels like only yesterday, I have a mixture of excitement and sadness going into this final stretch. Anyways, enough of the sentimental stuff because we have a lot football to get through. Good luck to all of you and Happy Thanksgiving!

First a look at Week 11

Week 11 Waiver Wire Wins

When I say “wins” it is in reference to player(s) won on the waiver wire, not a performance evaluation. Because I am releasing this article after the conclusion of week 11 many things in hindsight may not be a win after all. I include this section not for bragging rights or victory laps, but rather to keep myself accountable and demonstrate that I am in fact bidding on many of the players I am writing about (for better and worse).

Several of the top options were not available or ones I was willing to pay for given the teams’ individual roster. I included the prices I saw these players go for in leagues I am in.

Noah Brown (No shares)

Other league price won $454

Jayden Reed (No shares)

Other league price won $200

Elijah Moore (No shares)

Other leagues price range won $109-$162

Rondale Moore (No shares)

Other leagues price range won $20-$87

Jalen Guyton (No shares)

Other leagues price range won $5-$188

Tyler Conklin (No shares)

Other leagues price range won $12-$178

Matthew Stafford

Winning bid $6, other leagues price range won $1-$66

Jameis Winston

Winning bid $1

Taysom Hill

Winning bid $5

Israel Abanikanda (6 shares)

Winning bids $1, $1, $1, $1, $1, $11, other leagues price range won $5-$33

Myles Gaskin (2 shares)

Winning bids $1, $1

A.T. Perry (6 shares)

Winning bids $1, $12, $21, $21, $21, $23, other leagues prices range won $1-$172

Rashod Bateman

Winning bid $1

Trenton Irwin

Winning bid $1, other leagues price range won $1-$120

Noah Gray (4 shares)

Winning bids $1, $1, $3, $1, other league price won $9

Isaiah Likely

Winning bid $1

Michael Mayer

Winning bid $203, other league price won $23

Mike Gesicki

Winning bid $1

Houston Defense (5 shares)

Winning bids $1, $1, $2, $11, $20, other leagues price range won $1-$3

Miami Defense (2 shares)

Winning bids $21, $52, other leagues price range won $27-$148

Kansas City Defense

Winning bid $41, other leagues price range won $11-$55

Philadelphia Defense

Winning bid $11

Denver Defense

Winning Bid $1, other leagues price range won $1-$25

Minnesota Defense

Winning bid $1, other leagues price range won $1-$11

Los Angeles Defense

Winning bid $11, other leagues price range won $1-$2

Week 11 Standings

Before I get to team reviews this week I want to review the regular season and post season set-up for each platform. I will discuss where each team currently stands in the playoff picture as well.

NFFC

• Regular season wk 1-14

  • Top 3 seeds from each league advance to championship

  • Wild Card: Top 15% of non qualifying teams earn wild card spot into championship

    • Seed 1: Best H2H record w/ highest points

    • Seed 2: Remaining team w/ highest points

    • Seed 3: Remaining team w/ highest points

• Championship wk 15-17

  • No H2H

  • Highest score wins

    • Regular season average + wk15 + wk16 + wk17

FFPC

• Regular season wk 1-12

  • Top 4 seeds advance to league playoffs

  • Top 2 seeds automatically advance to championship

    • Seed 1: Best H2H record

    • Seed 2: Highest points

    • Seed 3: Remaining team w/ best H2H record

    • Seed 4: Remaining team w/ most points

• League Playoffs wk 13-14

  • H2H matchup to determine league champion

  • Top 2 league playoff teams advance to championship

• Championship wk 15-17

  • No H2H

  • Highest score wins

    • Regular season average + wk15 + wk16 + wk17

NFFC Prime Time

Buckeye Boomers (7-4) 1st Place 1629.45 pts

The Boomers won a close matchup this week by a tenth of a point! They maintain a sizable lead 54 point lead over the second place team which has the same record. This team is currently 64th overall and looks really solid primed for a big playoff run.

Ship Taeking (5-6) 9th Place 1398.75 pts

I feel for this team so excited to get Devon Achane back only to lose him immediately was gut wrenching… and they have Cooper Kupp as well. This team is over 200 pts behind the 3rd seed and even though we still have 3 weeks left I think the race is over here.

Ship Chasing (5-6) 2nd Place 1604.85 pts

Had a big score and big win this week thanks to Lamar Jackson and Tyreek Hill. This was the infamous Rashod Bateman v Jaylen Reed start/sit debate in which we started Jayden Reed who scored 19.20pts compared to Bateman 8pts. (congratulations Gretch). Unfortunately this team did lose Mark Andrews this week but is in a good position to secure a playoff spot.

Waiver Chasing (8-3) 6th Place 1449.40 pts

We won a matchup that was closer than it should have been no thanks to Hollywood Brown and Garrett Wilson horrendous scores. Also if Taylor Swift could cancel the rest of her tour and attend the rest of the Chief’s games I would greatly appreciate it. With 3 weeks remaining my team has second best win/loss record and is still ~50pts behind the 3rd place team. We can get to the next round by winning out if the first place team losses 2x or catching up in points… there is also the wild card spots possible.

NFFC Super 12 Team

Shark Jumping 1st Place (7-4) 1610.05 pts

Won easily with its 49ers super stack who put up big points on the week. This team is sitting pretty heading into these last couple weeks but the Ken Walker injury is less than ideal.

NFFC Silver Bullet

Ship Chasing Single Bullet (6-5) 3rd Place 1518.10 pts

The Single Bullet won this week with solid performances from most its core, but suffered two big potential injury losses; Cooper Kupp and Luke Musgrave. This team currently holds the 3 seed but there are two teams within 20pts, so they need to keep their foot on the gas.

FFPC Main Event

Chasin’ Go Bills (7-4) 2nd Place 1635.35 pts

This team easily won its matchup for the week but going into the final week of the season without Cooper Kupp and Luke Musgrave is less than ideal. I did pick up Isaiah Likely for the team before the Mark Andrews injury so that should help soften the blow a bit. This team currently has the 2nd seed which would guarantee a shot at championship if it holds through next week.

SC (Mini Episodes) (7-4) 2nd Place 1629.85 pts

The SC team suffered a loss after AJ Brown had worst performance of the year and the team sat Jaylen Warren for Raheem Mostert. This is another team who won’t have Luke Musgrave and is set for a big playoff run currently holding the #2 seed.

Stat Chasing (5-6) 8th Place 1373.60 pts

The team put up a good fight, but it just was not enough. With only one week left of the regular season here this team is out of the race.

April/Cranking Purple (6-5) 6th Place 1442.75 pts

This team won’t go down without a fight and won its matchup this week thanks to Kyler Murray and Brian Robinson. Unfortunately this team is behind the #4 seed by 157 pts and with only one week left its too little too late.

Slo Bros (5-6) 8th Place 1468.45 pts

Another team with a solid victory on the back of the Tua/Tyreek Miami stack, even Pollard found the end zone. This team sits 43pts behind the #4 seed heading into the final week of the regular season… so you are saying there is a chance?

Chasing Stolen Bananas (8-3) 3rd Place 1566.40 pts

This team had a narrow victory after QJ dropped the ball, I mean score. This team currently hold the #3 seed but could move up if they win and #1 seed loses or they score more points than the #2 seed this week.

Five Horsemen (8-3) 3rd Place 1422.05 pts

Won by a narrow margin here a let down performances from Garrett Wilson, at least Breece Hall got there this week. The horsemen ride into the final week from the #3 seed, they need to win their final matchup to secure a shot at a post season and could even move into the #1 seed if that team loses.

StephWuGee (6-5) 5th Place 1518.30 pts

My main event team is having a late season rally and scored the most points in the league this week. We are now sitting in the #4 seed spot heading into the final week of the regular season, but have Go Bills breathing down our neck 12.55pts behind. This one will be a battle to the end!

FFPC FantasyPros Championship

Ball Knower (5-6) 9th Place 1391.80 pts

The team won the battle this week, but lost the war. The Bengals just were not the team to be on this year, better luck next year.

Super Shorty (3-8) 11th Place 1317.50

Its almost a slap in the face that my team won this week. The fat lady has sung a long time ago here, on to bigger and better things next year.

Scott Fish Bowl 13

Stephmiller40 (20-2) 1st Place 2602.64 pts

The regular season is over, I won my Whataburger Dallas Live division. I enter the playoff race ranked 30th overall. I get Kyren Williams back this week, I am feeling good here!

Week 12 Waiver Priorities NFFC/FPPC

Below are all the players I like for Week 12 for FFPC and NFFC leagues. I break down all players into tiers with FAAB suggestions, followed by analysis, and a list of players to consider dropping. This article is also viable for those of you who play in deeper league formats and dynasty leagues, as I try and go deep into the player pool. All stats and data for this article are pulled from Fantasy Life, PFF, Ben Gretch of Stealing Signals, and ETR defense v position FPOE chart and PROE.

Tier 1

Isaiah Likely

Suggested FAAB 30-45%

Isaiah Likely is thrust into relevance after Mark Andrews suffered a devastating season ending ankle injury. Likely ran 88% of routes but was only targeted once. Likely did flash as a rookie and has a 100yd game on his resume, but has mostly disappointed when Andrews missed time. I still expect Likely to be the primary receiving TE and he had very good route participation for a TE making him a priority add on this usage alone in deeper and TEP leagues, the question remains how much target volume he can earn.

Tier 2

Jeff Wilson, Tucker Kraft, Tutu Atwell, A.T. Perry, Justin Watson, Donald Parham

Suggested FAAB 15-25%

Jeff Wilson is now the RB2 in Miami by default for as long as Devon Achane remains out after reaggravating his knee injury and Salvon Ahmed has now been placed on IR. If Wilson was dropped now is the time to pick him up and stash him given the high efficiency of Miami’s run game coupled with the questionable health of all its running backs.

Tucker Kraft immediately becomes a high priority waiver target in high stakes leagues as the replacement for Luke Musgrave who suffered a lacerated kidney injury and will miss the game Thursday (possibly rest of season). Kraft is a 3rd round rookie with good size, athleticism, and speed, which he showed off last week against the Chargers with a 27 yd catch and run.

Tutu Atwell is back again as an add after Cooper Kupp suffered an ankle injury during the week 11 game and now is questionable for week 12. We have seen how this plays out the first 4 weeks of the season where Atwell saw an average 22.5% target and there is no longer Van Jefferson on the roster. Atwell is worth an add and can be started as a WR2/3 option if Kupp misses time.

A.T. Perry becomes a high priority pickup after Michal Thomas was placed on IR with a knee injury. The Saints had a bye week 11 but during the week 10 game Perry took over the Michael Thomas role after Thomas left with a knee injury. Perry played on 89% of routes, matching Chris Olave, but only saw 10% of team targets.

Justin Watson is the Chiefs number one wide receiver coming off the bye week just like we all predicted. Watson led the team with a 68% WOPR ahead of Travis Kelce despite multiple drops (the Chiefs looked baaad in this game). Watson is a solid add in these deep leagues where we are grasping at straws to find viable starting options at this point on the waiver wire.

Donald Parham led the TE room running 68% of routes with a 15% team target share with Gerald Everett missing week 11. Parham is a solid pickup with big opportunity given how decimated the Charger offense is with injuries should Everett continue to miss time.

Tier 3

Royce Freeman, D’Ernst Johnson, Chase Edmonds, Jamaal Williams, Samaje Perine, Zamir White

Suggested FAAB 1-10%

Royce Freeman will be the RB2 in the Rams offense with Kyren Williams returning from injury and the release of Darrell Henderson. I like keeping Freeman as a stash option that could see some work contingent on how healthy Williams is and now is the clear injury contingent handcuff.

D’Ernst Johnson has secured the RB2 role after speculation last week that a role change was occurring. Johnson played on 24% of snaps to Bigsby 14% and ran 29% of routes while Bigsby ran none. Johnson worked as the number 2 back the entire game until the very end where Bigsby saw some garbage time touches. I want to add Johnson where available as one of the higher upside injury contingent stashes left at this point of the season.

Chase Edmonds was the only other back to see work in this one and has clearly locked up the RB2 role in the Tampa Bay offense. Edmonds is an injury contingent stash only at this point.

Jamaal Williams is the clear RB2 on the Saints (RIP Kendre Miller) and is an injury contingent stash behind Alvin Kamara.

Samaje Perine continues to see more work than Jaleel McLaughlin, running more routes (32% to 19%), seeing a higher percentage of team target share (22% to 16%) and playing on the majority of long down and distance (82%) and 2 minute snaps (87%). It was also Perine who saw the most High Value Touches (7). While this remains a three headed backfield the Broncos are determined to continue to use RBs in the pass game making Perine an intriguing stash option that can be used in an emergency start on a wire that is mostly barren in high stakes.

Zamir White is an elite handcuff option that should be rostered if available operating as Josh Jacobs primary backup on early downs.

Tier 4

Trayveon Williams, DeeJay Dallas, Patrick Taylor, Michael Carter, Kenny McIntosh

Suggested FAAB <1-5%

Trayveon Williams remains the clear RB2 in the Bengals offense which I think I writeup almost every week at this point. Losing Joe Burrow to a season ending injury is a tough break for the Bengals and I have to think they lean more heavily on the run here on out.

DeeJay Dallas operated as the RB2 behind Zach Charbonnet after Kenneth Walker left the game with a legit oblique injury and almost certainly going to miss at least one game, if not more. Dallas could play some on pass downs, but I expect Charbonnet to see a workhorse role for as long as Walker remains out.

Patrick Taylor returns to Green Bay for an opportunity he could not turn down after it is likely that Aaron Jones and Emmanuel Wilson miss the game on Thursday with injuries. Taylor will operate as the RB2 behind AJ Dillon and could see significant playing time given all the injuries on offense.

Michael Carter was picked up by Cardinals after being released by the Jets. He has not played a game yet for Arizona but we saw James Conner give up the third down role to Tony Jones, I want to bet on Carter to surpass Jones as the pass down back.

Kenny McIntosh is likely to be activated for the Thursday night game against the 49ers. Pete Carroll states, “Seattle needs him. Kenneth Walker’s oblique strain is going to take a bit to figure out.” I want to pick up the rookie as a take a peek option this week.

Tier 5

Jalen Tolbert, Cedrick Wilson, Greg Dortch, Jalin Hyatt, Trey Palmer

Suggested FAAB <1%

Jalen Tolbert route percentage dropped back to 40% this week after a big spike to a season high of 63% in week 10 while Michael Gallup continues to a decrease in routes as well with 45% in week 11. Tolbert out targeted Gallup in this one 5 to 4, and I continue to want to stash the second year player where available as Dak continues to elevate the pass catchers around him.

Cedrick Wilson retains the number WR3 role on the Dolphin offense, and is the clear beneficiary if Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle miss time. Given how explosive and concentrated Miami is I like the idea of stashing Wilson as an emergency start and injury with high injury contingent upside.

Greg Dortch led the Cardinals in receiving with 8 targets 6 catches and 76 yds while Michael Wilson and Zach Pascal missed the game. Kyler Murray continues to work his way back from injury and should continue to improve. I am not sure what Dortch’s role will be once Wilson returns to the lineup so keep an eye on his health.

Jalin Hyatt could see an increased roll after Darius Slayton injured his arm if Slayton misses time. The Giants did let Tommy DeVito air it out in week 11 against a weak Commander defense, however he was still sacked 9 times. This offense remains far from exciting but maybe there is a shimmer of hope for the rookie yet.

Trey Palmer saw 6 targets in the week 11 game and remains a viable stash option as a starter on offense running 78% of routes. Palmer’s role could grow massively with an injury to Chris Godwin or Mike Evans.

Tier 6

Noah Gray, Tanner Hudson, Tommy Tremble, Jack Stoll, Greg Dulcich, Daniel Bellinger

Suggested FAAB <1%

Noah Gray saw a season low 31% of routes in the Monday night game, however remains a priority handcuff stash in TEP leagues heading into the playoffs in case anything were to happen to Travis Kelce.

Tanner Hudson continues to see a sizable amount of targets on offense with a 13% target share in week 11 on a limited role, only running 44% of routes. Hudson is a hard sell at this point for me on such low route volume in a TE time share and now catching passes from Jake Browning.

Tommy Tremble ran 68% of routes with Hayden Hurst missing week 11 and saw 12% of team targets. If Hurst continues to miss time Tremble is a viable emergency fill at the position.

Jack Stoll operated as the Eagles primary receiving TE and was the only TE to see targets with Dallas Goedert out of the lineup, expect the role to continue while Goedert remains sidelined.

Greg Dulcich is eligable to return off IR, hopefully we see him soon as the Broncos have gotten nothing out of the TEs in the pass game without him.

Daniel Bellinger ran 81% of routes in week 11 continuing to play a full time role in the Giant offense and is a viable option if you need a spot start but I question the ceiling of all Giants pass catchers.

Tier 7

Israel Abanikanda, Rashaad Penny, Cedrick Tillman, Tre Tucker, Julio Jones, Julian Hill

Suggested FAAB <1%

Israel Abanikanda only played on garbage time but remains an injury contingent stash.

Rashaad Penny is only two injuries away to relevance, but it was disappointing to see him inactive off the bye week.

Cedrick Tillman is playing a full time role on offense and ran 87% of routes in week 11, unfortunately he only saw 2 targets yet again this week. I am willing to stash the rookie and see if he can earn more targets or if this offense can improve, but it is hard to be optimistic about this offense with Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center. DTR had 43 attempts for 165 yds thanks to a ridiculously low 3.8 YPA (which ties Kenny Pickett for second to worst on the week only to Tim Boyle) and an anemic 3.6 aDOT (lowest among QBs with 20% of drop backs week 11).

Tre Tucker saw 114 air yards week 11, second only to Davante Adams while running 40% of routes and could emerge as another preferred target for Aidan O’Connell down the stretch.

Julio Jones ran a route on 75% of drop backs and saw a 10% team target share operating as the number 3 wide receiver ahead of Olamide Zaccheaus. Julio didn’t appear very explosive out there, but still holds injury contingent value that could be a cheap stash option in deep leagues.

Julian Hill ran 49% of routes with Durham Smythe out for week 11. I like him as a stash if you need some upside at TE down the stretch.

Drops

Joe Burrow, Danny Dimes, Zach Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Taylor Heinicke, Darrell Henderson, Justice Hill, Keaontay Ingram, Emari Demercado, Cam Akers, Tank Bigsby, Michael Gallup, Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, DJ Chark, Darnell Mooney, Michael Thomas, Mark Andrews