Welcome to week 6

As the title suggests this has been a very eventful waiver period for all the wrong reasons. We saw several injuries occur this week to many star players at their respected positions. While it can be very frustrating to fantasy managers to lose your early round picks and breakouts for time during the season, luckily it does not appear any of these injuries are of a season ending level of severity we saw earlier this year. At this point in the season you are probably noticing the waiver wire looking a bit thinner, especially in deeper leagues you will probably have to be more aggressive to land any possible viable starter at the position. Players I look to target, aside from the obvious beneficiaries of these injuries, are those who are ascending, that I believe have upside and could break out down the stretch and supercharge my team for a playoff run. I also want to target some ambiguous situations that have potential upside to pay off if correct. There is a lot to go over this week so let’s get started…

First a look at week 5

Week 5 Waiver Wins

When I say “wins” it is in reference to player(s) won on the waiver wire, not a performance evaluation. Because I am releasing this article after the conclusion of week 5 many things in hindsight may not be a win after all. I include this section not for bragging rights or victory laps, but rather to keep myself accountable and demonstrate that I am in fact bidding on many of the players I am writing about (for better and worse).

I admit we did bid super aggressively last week on most of the top waiver adds to win those players. While I regret not going harder on Jaleel McLaughlin who went in the range of $337-$730 in our leagues and played well, Michael Wilson had only one catch after people paid for him in the range of $255- $420. One thing I am very excited about is being early on one of the top waiver adds for this week, Emari Demercado, who I can almost certainly guarantee will cost most leagues much more than $1 to land.

Latavius Murray 

Winning bid $1

Trayveon Williams (2 shares)

Winning bid $1, $1 other league went $1

Keaton Mitchell

Winning bid $1, other leagues went in range $12-$79

Emari Demercado (3 shares )

Winning bids $1,$1,$1, other league went in range $3-$58

Chase Edmonds

Winning bid $1

Ke’Shawn Vaughn

Winning bid $1, other leagues went in range $1-$2

Trey Palmer (2 shares)

Winning bids $1, $8, other leagues went in range $5-$46

Sam Howell

Winning bid $17

Devin Singletary

Winning bid $52, other league went $287

Kalif Raymond

Winning bid $28, other leagues went in range $5-$94

Jalen Hyatt

Winning bid $7

Darnell Mooney

Winning bid $1, other leagues went in range $36-$41

Miami Team Defense (3 shares)

Winning bids $1, $7, $22, other leagues went in range $1-$69

Detroit Team Defense (2 shares)

Winning bids $1, $7, other leagues went in range $1-$41

Indianapolis Team Defense (2 shares)

Winning bids $2,$1, other leagues went in range $2-$3

Denver Team Defense

Winning bid $1

Week 5 Standings

Here is a look at how the Ship Chasing and my other teams are performing so far, as you can see some are much better than others. There is still a lot of football, and many of the teams are built to become stronger as the season comes on (ie zero RB and rookies).

NFFC Prime Time

Buckeye Boomers (3-2) 1st Place 771.05 pts

A big win this week for the Boomers vaulted the team from 4th place back to 1st place, where they rightfully belong. The decision to start Sam Howell over Matthew Stafford proved to be a wise one this week. We saw big games here from Travis Etienne, George Pickens, Breece Hall, and Saints defense who carried the load while some superstars like Davante Adams dudded out.

Ship Taeking (2-3) 8th Place 679.10 pts

The short kings also came out of this week winners, despite leaving Sam Howell on the bench, moving one spot up in the rankings from the previous week. The week was filled with highs and lows as we saw the return of Copper Kupp (he is looking good), Kyle Pitts best performance yet, and the Breece Hall coming out party… and then De’Von Achane knee injury brutally stabbed us in the heart.

Ship Chasing (2-3) 6th Place 715.30 pts

This was the second loss in a row here, dropping the team one spot in the league standings. Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, and Wan’Dale Robinson put up disappointing weeks while the usual suspects Breece Hall and D’Andre Swift tried to carry the load at running back. The bench looks a bit ugly here, but hopefully we can tighten up somethings on the waiver wire this week.

Waiver Chasing (3-2) 5th Place 651 pts

My team finally booked a win after I thought all hope was lost watching Travis Kelce the leave the game with an ankle injury, only to return and tough it out. We had a tough decision on who to fill our flex with after Jahmyr Gibbs was ruled out, and ultimately took a chance on Josh Reynolds, who carried an injury designation himself, but proved to be the correct decision. Breece Hall was the hero of the week on this one as well taking us to the promised land ahead of schedule.

NFFC Super 12 Team

Shark Jumping (3-2) 3rd Place 726.15 pts

This team suffered a loss this week moving from 2nd to 3rd place on the leaderboard, despite rostering a big 49ers stack (minus hat trick George Kittle) forcing them to settle for Brock is that guy Purdy, CMC, and Brandon Aiyuk. This team should look better this week getting Ken Walker back off the bye week and not being forced to start Matt Breida.

FFPC Main Event

Chasin’ Go Bills (3-2) 2nd Place 768.70 pts

This team has now suffered two losses in a row, dropping it to 2nd place in the league, despite still maintaining the most points overall. I am not worried here as this team just got back Cooper Kupp and had to sit other stars Amon Ra St. Brown (injury) and Keenan Allen (bye week) and saw some bench players put up some promising performances in Justice Hill and Kendre Miller. Calvin goose egg Austin goes on bye this week, and Dionte Johnson is due to return from IR, making the roster churn decisions an easy one for the week.

SC (Mini Episodes) (3-2) 3rd Place 711.90 pts

Another team on a losing streak, this team featured a 49ers super stack complete with kicker and Ceedee Lamb bring back. The other stacked offense was Miami with Tua, Mostert, and the defense. This team is set to get a boost soon rostering several players that should benefit from teammate injuries, trades, and injury/bye week returns in Raheem Mostert, Jordan Addison, Tutu Atwell, Emari Demercado, Dionte Johnson, Geno Smith, and DK Metcalf.

Stat Chasing (3-2) 7th Place 645.65 pts

The stat chasing boys are still fighting hard, pulling out a victory this week. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce put up enough points after all, and Justice was served when Hill got them some much needed points at the running back position.

April/Cranking Purple (3-2) 4th Place 637.80 pts

This team suffered its second consecutive loss and got hit hard with injuries rostering the likes of Danny Dimes, Tee Higgins, and Justin Jefferson. Now they desperately need to see rookies JSN, Zach Charbonnet, and Roschon Johnson break out soon.

Slo Bros (2-3) 6th Place 699.20 pts

Three losses in a row cannot feel great, but this was a close one. We discussed starting Hunter Henry over Kyle Pitts as the safer floor option and siding with projections… we definately did not see this goose egg coming. This is another team that already has this weeks top waiver add on the roster in Emari Demercado.

StephWuGee (2-3) 8th Place 640.45 pts

My team suffered an ugly loss this week after Amon-Ra St. Brown was ruled out and Devonta Smith did his best disappearing act. This week looks brighter as we get Keenan Allen and Ken Walker back off the bye week and have Jordan Addison on the team who should benefit after the Justin Jefferson injury and we are yet another team with Emari Demercado rostered ahead of time.

FFPC FantasyPros Championship

Ball Knower (2-3) 9th Place 626.75 pts

This team locked in its second win of the season and took a massive step forward in the league standings this week, as Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase finally put up viable fantasy points. Combine these performances with Breece Hall and D’Andre Swift and this team is set for a late season rally.

Super Shorty (0-5) 12 Place 607.85 pts

Well you can’t win them all… or any of them apparently, it really stings only losing by 4 pts. this week. The future for this team is pretty bleak unless a miracle happens.

Scott Fishbowl 13

Stephmiller40 (10-0) 1st Place 1303.82 pts

This team can win them all and now sits in 5th Place overall! Nothing can stop this team as I continue to win even after losing Tee Higgins, and having terrible performances from Davante Adams and a zero from Hunter Henry. Happy DJ Moore week to everyone who celebrates.

Week 6 Waiver Priorities for FFPC/NFFC

Below are all the players I like for Week 6 for FFPC and NFFC leagues. I break down all players into tiers with FAAB suggestions, followed by analysis, and a list of players to consider dropping. These tiers can be used for deeper leagues as well as a good guide for players worth targeting on waivers. If you play in home leagues most top tier players are still good bets, but it is unnecessary to dig deep into lower tiers as there are better players at the position likely available on your waivers. All stats and data for this article are pulled from Fantasy Life, PFF, Ben Gretch of Stealing Signals, and ETR defense v position FPOE chart.

Tier 1

Emari Demercado, D’Onte Foreman, Jeff Wilson, KJ Osbourne, Chris Brooks

Suggested FAAB 25-60%

Emari Demercado is a priority waiver target and my preferred option in the Cardinal’s backfield after James Conner suffered a knee injury and was placed on IR and Keaontay Ingram has been sidelined for the past two weeks with a neck injury. Demercado had already began taking over the pass role, after week 1 he was used on the majority of long down and distance snaps and played 100% of 2 minute offense in week 3 before surpassing Conner on % of routes run and doubling his target share in week 4. After Conner left the game with an injury in week 5 Demercado was used on all but one offensive snap, the only other active back, Corey Clement, saw no game time. Hopefully you have Demercado stashed if you have been an avid reader of this newsletter otherwise he will cost you. I don’t mind spending here if you need a starter at the RB position, especially in high stakes where there are very few viable options left at this point.

D’Onte Foreman is a solid add this week and would be an easy start as lead back against the Vikings after injuries to the other RBs Khalil Herbert (high ankle sprain, likely to miss multiple weeks), Roschon Johnson (concussion), and Travis Homer (hamstring) could see Foreman as the last man standing in an ascending Bears offense. Foreman has been a healthy inactive after week 1, and will most likely be playing behind Johnson when he returns, so this could be the lone week he is a viable starting option and not just a handcuff. Also keep an eye on reports, because Johnson has a better chance to clear concussion protocol in time for the week 6 matchup since the Bears played on Thursday night and he has a long week to recover, in which case Foreman is still worth a roster spot while Herbert is out, but I would make a less aggressive bid, closer to the 10-20% range.

Jeff Wilson was eligible to be activated off IR last week and wasn’t which leads me to ponder some underlying health concerns as we are hit hard with news that rookie sensation De’Von Achane injured his knee and is said to be expected to miss multiple weeks and is a candidate for IR. I expect Raheem Mostert to be the 1A in Achane’s absence as he has been playing very well ranking 2nd in PFF run grade (86.5). However, I want to prioritize any viable RB in Mike McDaniel’s offense as we have seen the Miami backfield continue to support multiple fantasy relevant starting running backs. If Wilson is available in your league I would be willing to do what it takes to get him, as this remains a fluid situation.

K.J. Osbourne is a waiver priority this week now that Justin Jefferson will be placed on IR with a hamstring injury. I admit I was shocked to see Osbourne available in several main events, and will suggest bidding aggressively in this format as he could be a valuable WR starter on teams that are thin at the position on a bare waiver wire. Osbourne is likely to see a big increase in targets given the enormous hole left by Jefferson; however, Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson will also see an increase, and I believe are the more talented players, which could ultimately cap Osbourne’s ceiling down the stretch.

Chris Brooks is the UDFA who earned a role over Salvon Ahmed in week 5 after his own dominant performance against the Broncos. How well did Brooks play… fucking phenomenal (excuse my language). Looking at that week 3 matchup, Brooks had a PFF run grade of 88.5 (3rd best behind his teammates), and had 7.22 yards per carry after contact ranking number 1, while avoiding 6 tackles, tying De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert. I am adding Brooks everywhere I can this week as a sneaky way to play this Miami offense and it could very well end up being the rookie who is given the first opportunity if Wilson’s health concerns linger. I am recommending a 5-20% bid as I don’t mind overpaying a bit to ensure I get him, but I don’t foresee him going anywhere close to the high recommended amount for other players in this tier.

Tier 2

Logan Thomas, Dawson Knox, Dalton Schultz, Gerald Everett, Noah Gray

Suggested FAAB 10-15%

Logan Thomas saw his best game yet this past week leading the team with 46% WOPR on a plethora of low aDOT throws on Sam Howell’s career high drop backs. He is more than viable as a streamer at the TE position with this type of consistent usage on the Commander offense.

Dawson Knox could see an increased role against the Giants if Dalton Kincaid misses the game with concussion and be a viable TE streamer for the week.

Dalton Schultz was dropped in several leagues I saw after he posted a low 45% route share in week 4, but he saw his routes increase significantly to 71% week 5 and had a 64% WOPR share, best among pass catchers on the team. I want to target where available where I need streamers at the TE position. Tank also suffered a head injury this game, a situation worth monitoring going into this week as it could open up more opportunities for Schultz.

Gerald Everett could be a viable fill-in, especially in TEP leagues and see an every down role coming off the bye if Donald Parham misses the game Monday night.

Noah Gray is a streamable option if Travis Kelce misses the Thursday night game on a short week after sustaining an ankle injury and remains a worthwhile stash option at the position.

Tier 3

Sam Howell, Gardner Minshew, Keaontay Ingram, Trenton Irwin

Suggested FAAB 5-10%

Sam Howell currently leads all QBs in drop backs on the season (236) after posting a career high 51 attempts and 37 completions good for 388 yds, 2TDs, and 1 interception on Thursday night against the Bears. Howell could be an every week starter if he could improve his 62.0 PFF passing grade (ranking 27th) while maintaining this volume. This could prove to be difficult as Howell ties Justin Fields for 2nd most drop backs under pressure this season (90) and leads the league in sacks (29).

Gardner Minshew is a waiver target if you need a bye week or injury fill in at QB position or play in deeper SF leagues with Anthony Richardson likely to miss some time with what is a shoulder injury, most likely an AC sprain. The Colts have dropped back and called more pass plays with Minshew at the QB position, who has an Adjustment Completion Percentage of 78.2%, ranking 12th best. However, Minshew will not offer the same rushing floor as Richardson, only rushing 4 times for 4 yards compared to 25 times for 136 yards. This week’s matchup is a good one for Minshew against the Jacksonville defense which allows 3.6 FPOE to opposing QBs this season.

Keaontay Ingram is worth a stash in a ambiguous situation where Conner is now going to miss multiple weeks on IR. Ingram could get most of the rushing work in Conner’s absence, as it appeared he was Conner’s direct backup earlier in the season. However, Ingram has been contending with his own neck injury and showed to be an inefficient runner with 1.9 YPC average so proceed with caution and continue to monitor reports.

Trenton Irwin took over the Tee Higgins role as the main outside receiver opposite Ja’Marr Chase and saw 10 targets for 8 receptions and 60 yards. If Tee Higgins (ribs) misses another game Irwin is one of the better WR options available for those who need a starter on waivers this week.

Tier 4

Trey Palmer, Kendrick Bourne, Jonnu Smith, Michael Mayer

Suggested FAAB 1-3%

Trey Palmer will fill the Mike Evans role coming off the bye week if Evans misses the game with hamstring injury and be a usable starter for WR needy teams and could hold some value as he appeared to solidify the slot role previously.

Kendrick Bourne could see a significant rise in playtime if Juju Smith-Schuster misses time with injury. The Patriots offense is a mess, but Bourne led in targets and receiving yards with 46% WOPR and would be a starting option for those desperate at the position because of injuries or bye weeks.

Jonnu Smith has 162 receiving yards over past 2 weeks, the most at TE position just as we all predicted entering the season. Smith still only ran 67% of routes week 5, and ranks 24th on routes run for TEs for season but maintaining a 35% WOPR providing enough receiving volume at the position.

Michael Mayer ran a season high 49% routes on Jimmy G drop backs Monday night and saw a 25% WOPR, second highest on the team. Meyer is a talented rookie that I have been excited for the Raiders to get going, if he can continue to outperform Hooper and consolidate a larger share of routes consistently he could have a viable ceiling at the TE position. I want to stash Mayer where available in high stakes TEP leagues.

Tier 5

Trayveon Williams, Ronnie Rivers, Chase Edmonds, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Eric Gray, Brandon Powell, Robert Woods, Kendrick Bourne, Nelson Agholor

Suggested FAAB <1%

Trayveon Williams remains on the list because he is the clear RB2 for the Bengals and was the only other RB who played this game. However it is clear that Williams is only a handcuff and has no standalone value, only getting 1 carry this game as the Bengals continue to feed Joe Mixon despite his inefficiency.

Ronnie Rivers is a nice stash if he is available in your leagues as the only back being used behind Kyren Williams in the Rams offense.

Chase Edmonds is eligible to come off IR as I wrote him up last week as a stash ahead of time to see how the Buccaneers backfield plays out coming off their bye week. The thesis is none of the RBs have been good or efficient and there is a role and opportunity if one of them steps up.

Ke’Shawn Vaughn was placed in the RB2 role in the last Buccaneer game before their bye week, seemingly overtaking Sean Tucker. However, Vaughn was inefficient with this opportunity as well. I don’t mind holding either back in this ambiguous situation to see how it plays out.

Eric Gray had more rush attempts than Matt Breida in week 5 and looked to be the more explosive back. I expect Saquon Barkley will be back, but I prefer to bet on the rookie as preferred stash going forward over Matt Breida.

Brandon Powell came in as the Justin Jefferson replacement on 3 wide sets and saw 6 targets. He could have some viability as deep target if Minnesota continues to runs 11 personnel, their highest used grouping, close to their 65% seasonal average.

Robert Woods would likely benefit if Tank Dell misses time and be a serviceable start if you are desperate at the position.

Kendrick Bourne is one of the only viable options on the Patriot offense and could function as a starter at the WR position in case of emergency with Juju Smith-Schuster and Demario Douglas both likely to miss. I still would look to better offenses if available.

Nelson Agholor is once again on this list if you need a WR fill for byes after Odell Beckham Jr. was injured again and Rashod Bateman remains a part-time rotational player. This is another less than desirable option.

Tier 6

Jordan Mason, Craig Reynolds, Patrick Taylor Tony Jones, Chase Claypool

Suggested FAAB <1%

Jordan Mason saw 10 carries against the cowboys and is operating as the RB2 with Elijah Mitchell out with a knee injury. It is hard to have many actionable takeaways given that this game was a blowout, but Mason is a viable deep stash as the RB2 in the most valuable offense for as long as Mitchell remains sidelined.

Craig Reynolds is the only other back for the Lions if Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring) continues to miss time after Zonovan Knight injured his arm, and remains a deep stash option.

Patrick Taylor is the RB2 on the Packer offense filling the Aaron Jones role for as long as he continues to miss or is limited with a hamstring injury. The Packers are not playing well making Taylor a deep stash prayer at best.

Tony Jones was claimed off waivers following the James Conner injury after being released by the Saints. He is a deep stash while Keaontay Ingram is injured if you want to hold while we see how this backfield shakes out.

Chase Claypool is not a player I personally am likely to roster in any leagues. However if anyone can get something out of him maybe it is Mike McDaniel…Claypool is pretty damn fast.

Drops

Melvin Gordon, Alec Pierce, Isaiah Spiller, Kenyan Drake, Gary Brightwell, Calvin Austin, Paris Campbell, Mecole Hardman, Rashaad Penny, Sean Tucker, Ty Chandler, Damien Harris, Jamaal Williams, Salvon Ahmed

Week 6 Priority Home League Targets

I wanted to include some players for all you home league heros out there! These players are rostered in <50% of ESPN leagues, I did not include any players from section above, however as mentioned previously most of the early tiers are still good targets. I listed the players in my ranked order instead of breaking into tiers for how I prioritize them and offer FAAB suggestions ranges for each player followed by a list of droppable players.

Roschon Johnson (37% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 25-50%) has a big opportunity to prove he can carry the load with Khalil Herbert expected to miss some time with a high ankle sprain. Both bears RBs have been playing well and splitting time, however Johnson could separate during this time and has seen a sizable workload in his absence, including receiving usage, in which he is averaging a respectable 1.14 Y/RR.

Josh Downs (10.9% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 10-15%) should be a priority wide receiver waiver add this week, especially while Anthony Richardson likely misses time with a shoulder injury. Downs has run a route on at least 77% of drop backs and has maintained a 22% TPPR. Now Downs stands to benefit immensely where he has already seen a significant increase in target share from 12.9% to 24.2% with Gardner Minshew under center.

Tyjae Spears (25.5% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 5-10%) is another running back I wrote up last week, feel free to look back at some impressive stats. This week Spears had 7 carries for 34yds and 1 TD and 4 targets. Spears already has receiving role and is outperforming Derrick Henry as a runner this season averaging 2 YPC more than the vet according to PFF. Spears is on a path to being an every week starter if he can earn more touches.

Josh Reynolds (24.4% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 3-5%) is a priority pickup for as long as Amon-Ra St. Brown is out. I am willing to overlook Reynold’s unusually low route rate (43%) and chalk it up to him being on the injury report as well and not fully healthy. Reynolds still led the wide receivers with a 19% target share.

Chuba Hubbard (18.1% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 3-5%) should be a priority waiver add this week as it seems plausible he could take over as lead rusher permanently. Week 5 Hubbard had 43% of rush attempts while miles Sanders has 33%, marking the second consecutive week Hubbard has more attempts. Hubbard has also been a better runner on the season ranking 7th with an 82.1 PFF run grade metric, while Sanders ranks an abysmal 57th with a 57.9 run grade.

Quentin Johnston (43.6% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 3-5%) remains a priority target where available coming off the Chargers bye week in which he saw a season high usage running 69% of routes and earning targets when out there with a 14%TPPR. I want to bet on the rookie continuing to ascend and overtaking Joshua Palmer sooner rather than later.

Zach Charbonnet (35.4% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 1-3%) is a high priority stash on a strong running offense and has outperformed Ken Walker on a limited sample as the more efficient and explosive runner earning a 79.3 PFF run grade ranking 12th while Walker has a 77.6 grade which ranks 16th, Charbonnet should be rostered in all leagues.

Matthew Stafford (34.2% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 1-3%) has the second most drop backs on the season (225) behind Sam Howell (236) and continues to rank first in PFF’s big time throw metric (14). Stafford saw the return of Cooper Kupp who slotted back in to lead the team with 37% target share, while rookie phenom Puka Nacua proved that Stafford could support multiple WRs in the offense maintaining a sizable role with 31% of targets. Stafford faces the Arizona Cardinals this week whose defense allows 2.6 FPOE to QBs making him one of the better streamer options.

Justice Hill (23.6% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 1-3%) should be on everyones rosters where available in deeper leagues and so now has been moved to home league list. Week 5 Justice Hill had less rush attempts than Gus Edwards (55% to 32%), but was more efficient on his runs (4.6YPC to 4.0 YPC) and saw more goal line touches (4 to 1). Hill also led the backfield in receiving, running 40% of routes to Edwards 24% and was the only back to receive targets, catching 4 balls for 13 yards and saw 100% of 2 minute offense. Note Keaton Mitchell has not seen work yet, but given the ambiguity of the Ravens backfield remains a great stash where available.

Kendre Miller (7.1% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 1-3%) is the primary backup behind Alvin Kamara after the Saints released Tony Jones, and is performed admirably in his pass opportunities last week. The game was a blowout and while most of Millers rushing attempts were during garbage time, he saw great usage in the receiving game. Miller ran 30% of routes to Kamara 36%, while posting a larger target share (16% to 12%) for an absurd 46% TPPR.

Jameson Williams (39.8% Rostered ESPN, Suggested FAAB 1-3%) made his long awaited debut on a week the Lion’s offense was littered with injuries. Williams ran a route on 50% of drop backs and had 2 catches on 3 targets already doubling his production from the year prior. Coach Dan Campbell already said that Williams was going to be worked into the offense slowly, and while nothing about his performance stood out this usage appears to be a step in the right direction. I remain cautiously optimistic here and want to continue to stash Williams where possible.

Drops

Jamaal Williams, Damien Harris, Dalvin Cook, Odell Beckham, Juju Smith-Schuster, Jerrick McKinnon, DJ Chark, Skyy Moore, Mac Jones, Paris Campbell, Matt Breida, Melvin Gordon, Rashaad Penny, Brandin Cooks, Van Jefferson, Allen Lazard, Pat Freiermuth